During The PIE Live Europe in London, Chris Skidmore said that since 2019, international students have increasingly been “fair game” to be attacked in the media.

“There’s a number of tipping points to be very careful about that, not necessarily we suggested is a problem, but we work out how to anticipate where we think potentially others may view it as a problem,” he suggested.

“We [need to] act early to identify some of the pointers where potentially where we can reassure [the critics].”

One example was the dependants issue, where one particular country – Nigeria – saw more dependants than actual students, he said. Another example is accommodation.

“How can we assure that every student has an accommodation place during the duration of that study that is not more than 20 miles away from where they study?” he asked.

“It’s a classic example of the media can take advantage and say universities are not looking after their international students.”

Another “tipping point challenge”, is that, by 2026, 50% of all UK university finances are predicted to be funded by international students for the first time, Skidmore said.

The former universities minister was speaking several weeks after the launch of the Evidence versus Emotion: The facts about international student recruitment and what they mean report.

The paper, published by the International Higher Education Commission which was founded by Skidmore, revealed “crucial deficiencies” in the data being used to inform key policy decisions.

It warned that arguments suggesting that the UK has too many international students or that the country’s higher education attracts non-genuine students is based on incorrect data.

Recent policy has been set on out-of-date data about international entrants from 2021, and fails to recognise that the last “normal” recruitment year was 2019, it suggested.

A more mature debate around international students in the UK will not be possible until measures introduced in the past 12 months – including on dependants – have seen the impact come to pass, vice principal for International at the University of Dundee and IHEC commissioner, Wendy Alexander, said.

“We will not see the scale of the reduction, that actually the contraction that they have introduced is been in place. That will be applied by the end of calendar year. It will make it easier to have a more mature debate,” Alexander noted.

She said that the next government will likely look to the Universities Accord in Australia as “a way of coming to the longterm settlement around higher education”.

“But it will not be quick and it will not be overnight,” she said.

“The growth is basically coming from Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa”

Alexander also said that while UK universities had seen a drop from students from the European Union, the sector should be lobbying the government to be able to attract more when it renegotiates with Europe in 2026.

Founder and director of Education Insight and respected sector commentator Janet Ilieva also predicted that higher education systems in the West will have to maintain relevant offers as they reach saturation point.

“The best way to look at the direction of travel for higher education is to see the trajectory of growth of HE systems, and the growth is basically coming from Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa,” she said.

“The systems [in the West] have kind of reached near maturity or have grown as big as they can get. The challenge for the future would be how to maintain your offer to be relevant.

“The only way to engage with [other systems] and to signal your relevance is to reach out and work in equitable partnerships.”