The predicted drop means there are 64,000 fewer than expected master’s students enrolled in US institutions in 2025/26 than previously anticipated, following five years of international growth propping up overall US master’s enrolment.
“Uncertainty around immigration policies appears to be one of the primary drivers, if not the primary driver, of the decline in international enrolments,” Brady Colby, head of market research at Validated Insights, told The PIE News.
The study, conducted by Validated Insights higher education marketing agency, draws on data from multiple sector bodies, revealing nearly half of US institutions expect graduate international application volumes to decline this year.
This builds on an existing downward trend, with 42% of institutions reporting fewer international graduate applications last year, according to IIE.
It reveals international enrolments have been driving the upward trajectory of US master’s programs since 2018/19, as domestic enrolments have declined.
From academic years 2018/19 to 2023/24, domestic master’s enrolment saw a 0.5% decline, while international enrolments grew by more than 6%, producing an overall growth rate of 0.4%.
Since 2021, the number of international master’s enrolments has steadily increased by over 11%, with this year’s sharp drop likely to have financial repercussions for institutions planning for sustained growth.
“Recently, projections indicated that international master’s enrolment in 2025/26 would be as high as 660,000, meaning there are now expected to be 64,000 fewer of these students than previously anticipated in 2025/26,” the report states.
It highlights recent NAFSA data indicating new international master’s enrolments fell by 19% year-over-year in fall 2025, alongside Studyportals analysis showing prospective student interest in the US plummeting by 50% between January and April 2025.
The impact of the decline varies dramatically depending on field of study, with international students over-represented in STEM master’s, comprising 80% of software engineering graduates and 77% of computer science graduates.
By contrast, education and healthcare programs tend to have the lowest percentages of international students, according to the report.
The report warns that many high-demand STEM programs are “highly dependent on international students”, forecasting course closures if the downward trend continues.
What’s more, “the US risks losing early-career talent in computer science, AI, cyber security, data science and engineering,” said Colby. “These are precisely the fields were domestic supply already falls short of labour market demand,” he added.
The knock-on effects will be felt not just by universities, but by employers, domestic students, and the broader US knowledge economy
Brady Colby, Validated Insights
Over time, repercussions include increased hiring bottlenecks for US employers, reduced innovation in AI and emerging technologies, and the exodus of firms expanding operations in countries with more predictable post-study work policies.
If current trends continue, higher education finances will come under increased pressure, causing program closures in STEM and MBA programs and a “measurable drag” on innovation and economic competitiveness, said Colby.
“The knock-on effects will be felt not just by universities, but by employers, domestic students, and the broader US knowledge economy,” he continued, highlighting the US economy could lose $7 billion in aggregate revenue due to declining international student numbers.
Following administration’s recent overhaul of the H-1B visa process in favour of higher wage earners, alongside anticipated restrictions on Optional Practical Training (OPT), the decline is likely to continue.
In a NAFSA survey of current US international students, over half of respondents (53%) said they would not have enrolled in the first place if access to H-1B was determined by wage levels.
Meanwhile, 54% of respondents said they would not have enrolled in the first place had OPT been rescinded. And 57% of master’s students who intend to stay in the US said they would be unlikely to try and stay if OPT were eliminated.
