Analysis of SEVIS and State Department data has highlighted a potential 30-40% decline in new international student enrolment this fall, depriving US communities of $7bn in spending and over 60,000 jobs, according to new research by NAFSA and JB International.
“This analysis, the first to calculate the potential economic impact of fewer international students on cities and towns across the country, should serve as a clarion call to the State Department that it must act to ensure international students and scholars are able to arrive on US campuses this fall,” said NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw.
The state department’s visa interview suspension between May 27 and June 18 – when it was announced that interviews and new vetting procedures should be implemented within five days – has wreaked havoc at embassies around the world and is a major contributor to the projected decline.
“Without significant recovery in visa issuance in July and August, up to 150,000 fewer students may arrive this fall,” warned NAFSA and JB International.
The situation is expected to worsen dramatically in June as the full impact of the interview freeze becomes clear, with “conservative” predictions forecasting an 80-90% decline coming at the peak time for student visa issuance, according to a NAFSA webinar on July 29.
And yet: “It is not too late. If the government decided to really press this agenda of prioritising students, given the number of students requesting visas and given where we are,” Aw told attendees.
Thanks to the suspension, students in India, China, Nigeria and Japan are still reporting limited appointment availability, causing many to give up on dreams of studying in the US as the fall semester looms ever closer.
Considering India and China together made up 54% of last year’s international enrolments, and Nigeria and Japan are the seventh and 13th largest markets, the delayed and cancelled appointments are having a major impact on enrolments.
Even before the freeze, visa issuance had started to fall as a result of hostile federal policies. From January to April 2025, F-1 visa issuance fell by 12%, and the latest State Department data showed a decline of 22% in May 2025 as compared to the same period last year.
Without significant recovery in visa issuance in July and August, up to 150,000 fewer students may arrive this fall
NAFSA & JB International
Trump’s travel ban – which bars international students and scholars from 19 countries from obtaining new visas to study in the US – have also played a part.
The legislation stems from the president’s June 4 executive order, which threatens $3bn in annual contributions and more than 25,000 jobs, the research predicts.
According to Jason Baumgartner, founder of JB International and author of the research: “an additional 36 countries are still in the talks for some sort of ban in the upcoming weeks”, marking potential areas for further declines.
Faced with such sobering predictions, NAFSA is urgently calling on the State Department to provide expedited visa appointments and processing for all student and exchange visitor applicants.
It is also calling for F and M students, as well as J exchange visitors, to be exempt from the travel bans currently restricting entry of nationals from 19 countries.
“The visa processing is not a technical glitch, it’s a policy failure that has human and economic consequences that are disproportionately affecting key source countries,” Aw told colleagues.
“These actions send harmful signals to international students and their families about whether they’re welcome or not in the US.
“This is not a one year problem. The ripple effect could conceivably go on for years,” Aw continued.
The visa processing is not a technical glitch, it’s a policy failure that has human and economic consequences
Fanta Aw, NAFSA
If new international student enrolments do follow the projected 30-40% drop, total international enrolment levels in the US could plummet by 15%, the organisations have warned.
Last year, the financial contributions of international students in the US reached an all-time high of $46bn, alongside supporting nearly 400,000 jobs across the country.
And yet, “the immediate economic losses projected here are just the top of the iceberg”, said Aw, highlighting the importance of international students driving innovation and competitiveness, and creating academic opportunities benefitting American colleges “for generations”.
“For the United States to succeed in the global economy, we must keep our doors open to students from around the world,” Aw maintained.
