The analysis assesses international student markets across the world against two measures: stability, defined as the reliability of a country as a continuing source of students, and opportunity, measuring the scope for further recruitment growth.
Only nine countries fall into what Public First describes as a “viable zone”, combining relatively high stability with significant recruitment headroom. The US, Ireland and Italy are among those identified.
The findings come as UK universities face growing pressure over their dependence on international student income, with the Office for Students warning that 58% of providers could be in deficit by 2028/29 under a scenario in which international student numbers do not grow.
Public First’s modelling suggests that some of the UK’s largest established international markets are unlikely to provide significant additional growth.
China, historically one of the UK’s biggest sources of international students, is described as having reached a “ceiling”, with its university-age population expected to shrink.
Meanwhile, Public First argues that the UK is already recruiting more students from India than demographic trends, income levels and competition from other study destinations can sustainably support.
Indian demand for UK study fell by 12% in 2024/25, according to the analysis, with the model projecting further decline under current Home Office policy.
The report suggests that universities therefore face a difficult trade-off – the markets where additional recruitment is most readily available tend to be less predictable from year to year.
Countries including Zimbabwe, Nepal and Vietnam are identified as examples of markets with recruitment potential but relatively low stability scores.
Jess Lister, director of higher education at Public First, said the modelling did not point towards a future of continued international recruitment growth.
The countries with real headroom left are mostly the ones whose numbers will swing sharply from one year to the next, with universities playing ‘recruitment whack-a-mole’ and chasing an ever-changing patchwork of less reliable countries
Jess Lister, Public First
“The countries with real headroom left are mostly the ones whose numbers will swing sharply from one year to the next, with universities playing ‘recruitment whack-a-mole’ and chasing an ever-changing patchwork of less reliable countries,” she said.
“In a world in which higher education is so reliant on international student income to balance the books, this will only further increase the volatility in the sector.”
Public First warns that competition from emerging study destinations could further reduce the UK’s available recruitment headroom.
It highlights the potential impact of high-quality Asian higher education systems in countries such as Japan, South Korea and Malaysia, alongside regional destinations including India and South Africa.
If the UK loses market share to these destinations, the modelling suggests, the pool of potential international students available to British universities would shrink further.
Public First argues that the modelling leaves the UK higher education sector with three broad options. Universities could pursue smaller and less stable markets, but this would require greater agility and expose institutions to increased recruitment risk, including the possibility of further government intervention.
Alternatively, the government could seek to change the policy environment, including visa rules, to make the UK more competitive with other major destinations such as the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand for students from more stable markets.
The third option, the report suggests, is for the sector and government to accept a period of contraction.
