The Office for Students’ (OfS) new financial sustainability report found 36% of English institutions reported deficits last year – a slight improvement of the 43% figure predicted by the watchdog in its last annual report.
Though better than expected, the results lay bare the “continued financial pressure” being felt across the sector, with OfS predicting more than four in ten universities will face shortfalls next year.
“We’ve warned of the risks of overoptimistic forecasting, and we remain concerned that this fixation on expected future growth is constraining the pace and scale of actions that institutions need to take to secure their long-term sustainability,” said OfS director of regulation Philippa Pickford.
Pickford highlighted “significant challenges” facing universities, including rising costs and uncertainty about student recruitment – both factors being compounded by the impact of the crisis in the Middle East.
The report warns of the predicted £570 million cost to the sector from the international student levy in 2028, which, due to the timing of the announcement, was unlikely to have been reflected in universities’ financial return forecasts for 2025.
It concluded that the sector was experiencing less resilience and greater dependency on international income, while the volatility of this income stream was a central theme of providers’ reports to the regulator.
In the longer term, institutions forecasted a return to stronger finances from 2026/27 onwards, but the report warns this recovery is based on “overly optimistic assumptions” of rising student recruitment, highlighting continued unpredictability.
It reveals that while UK student recruitment increased by a small amount in 2024/25, international enrolments fell by 7.7% – nine percentage points below what universities expected.
Despite those shortfalls, providers continue to forecast strong student growth, predicting a near-20% increase in UK students and a 22% increase in international students over the next five years.
To test the resilience of universities’ assumptions, OfS modelled three plausible scenarios, the most severe of which would see cumulative losses of £4.2bn pushing almost 200 providers into deficit by 2028/29, representing 70% of the sector.
Under the ‘no growth’ scenario, assuming flat student recruitment going forward, nearly 60% of England’s universities are forecast to be in deficit in five years.
This fixation on expected future growth is constraining the pace and scale of actions that institutions need to take to secure their long-term sustainability
Philippa Pickford, Office for Students (OfS)
Elsewhere, the report highlights government data indicating study visa applications decreased by nearly a third from January to March 2026, as compared with the previous year, warning of declines in key markets such as India and China.
It comes as data released by the Home Office today shows a 33% year-on-year decline in study visa applications this April, as levels drop to their lowest level in the past five years.
Feedback from providers revealed the continued impact of the government’s ban on postgraduate taught students from bringing family members to the UK – with student dependants plummeting by 86% as a result of the policy in 2024.
What’s more, they said increased visa costs and rising UKVI compliance regulations taking effect from next month created an “existential risk” for providers, alongside negative global perceptions of the international student levy dampening demand.
While the regulator found some positive examples of cost controls including restructuring measures, it strongly highlights the “need for more realistic and robust forecasting” amid persistent volatility facing the sector.
“We’re pleased to see more institutions responding to the warning signs, but much of this work appears to be targeted at addressing short-term issues,” said Pickford: “Put bluntly, that isn’t going to be enough.”
Russell Group chief executive Libby Hackett said the update confirmed the “unprecedented financial strain” faced by large parts of the sector, calling for more sector support.
“We recognise that many businesses and households are finding it tough right now but, if universities are going to play their role in driving economic growth right across the UK, we need a more stable and consistent approach to funding,” Hackett urged.
The report highlights ways to mitigate losses, with universities increasingly considering consolidating courses, evaluating transnational education and new income streams, and reassessing the financial viability of research activity.
Rather than relying on short-term fixes, it said some universities must consider new models, including mergers and other forms of consolidation.
It comes on the same day as King’s College London and Cranfield University announce plans to merge in 2027, following the universities of Greenwich and Kent launching a merger last year.
Vivienne Stern MBE, chief executive of Universities UK said the OfS’s analysis showed that universities in England faced an “extremely challenging” funding situation.
“The decision to increase fees in England in line with inflation was the right thing to do to begin to address the challenge, and government should be congratulated for grasping the nettle, but the task is not yet complete,” she said.
“Indeed, changes to visa policy, the introduction of a tax on international students and increased pension and national insurance costs have added to the pressure. We also fear that DFE is about to cut grant funding to English universities to support the cost of wider teaching. They should not do that.”
Meanwhile, UKCISA’s interim chief executive Heather Knight said that international students were “navigating a system shaped by uncertainty”, pressing for the government to ensure that policies affecting them were “joined up, evidence-based and centred on the student experience”.
“Government must ensure that students are provided with clarity, stability and proper protections in response to the ongoing impacts of changing immigration and international student policy,” she added. “If we are serious about remaining a world-leading destination, we must do more than rely on their contribution – we must actively protect and celebrate it.”
