Speaking at a panel during the 2026 Universities Australia Solutions Summit, Hill reiterated his confidence that the government’s tightened policy settings are stabilising the sector, and dismissed a 15% drop in commencements and an overall flatlining of student numbers as an expected part of the the interventions designed to manage the “unsustainable” level of international enrolment growth post pandemic.
Hill made clear that a return to high-volume expansion is not on the agenda. “I don’t think people should expect to see massive growth,” he said, pointing instead to sustainability, integrity and long-term value.
“We were going to need to prune the tree to save the tree,” he said, reiterating his view that recalibration was essential to safeguard the sector’s social licence amid broader migration pressures.
I don’t think people should expect to see massive growth
Julian Hill, assistant minister for international education
Hill stressed the government’s approach has focused on managing “the size and the shape” of the student cohort, rather than crude caps. He rejected suggestions that higher refusal rates were politically driven, saying they reflect proper application of integrity settings rather than national planning limits.
“We will continue to aim to provide as much policy stability as we can,” he added, acknowledging the importance of certainty for institutions operating in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.
For Hill, the future of international education lies not in chasing numbers but in extracting greater value – economically, diplomatically and academically. He questioned the long-term benefit of large cohorts enrolled in low-level qualifications with limited vocational pathways and emphasised the need to strengthen diversification, particularly into Southeast Asia.
Transnational education (TNE) is central to that strategy, but Hill cautioned against assuming branch campuses are the only model. He noted Australia has doubled its branch campuses over the past decade but warned that institutions must carefully manage risk and expectations.
He encouraged institutions to think more broadly about twinning, articulation agreements and curriculum partnerships.
He also linked TNE to research collaboration, observing that Australia produces roughly 3% of global knowledge. “That means 97% of the world’s knowledge is created somewhere else,” he said, underscoring the importance of deeper international research ties.
Models such as Monash University’s long-term reinvestment in Malaysia were cited as examples of sustained regional engagement.
UK international education champion Sir Steve Smith, who spoke alongside Hill on the panel broadly endorsed Hill’s direction – but issued a note of caution drawn from the UK’s recent experience.
In the UK, rapid growth in certain visa categories, rising dependants, and increased asylum claims among former student visa holders have triggered political backlash and tighter policy interventions. Smith warned that if sectors fail to address perceived abuses or distortions proactively, governments may respond with blunt, sweeping restrictions.
He suggested the lesson for Australia is clear: maintaining public confidence – the sector’s social licence – is as important as maintaining international competitiveness.
