The figures from the US International Trade Administration revealed a 28.5% overall drop in student arrivals this July, as the impact of the state department’s visa interview suspension and other hostile policies under the Trump administration take hold.
“The United States has long been the top destination for the world’s best and brightest minds,” said NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw. “This data serves as the latest alarming evidence that US preeminence is in jeopardy.”
Arrivals from India and China, America’s two largest source destinations, fell by 46% and 26% respectively.
South Korea (-20%), Taiwan (-14.5%) and Vietnam (-36%) – the next three largest sending markets bar Canada which was not included in the data – also recorded concerning drops.
In total, 76,519 student visa holders arrived in the US this July, as compared to 106,993 last year.
Part of the decrease in arrivals might have been caused by more international students remaining in the US over the summer rather than returning home and risking visa challenges upon re-entry.
Nevertheless, the data signals a significant incoming drop in new international enrolments arriving on US campuses for the start of the academic year.
Student visas allow international students to arrive in the US up to 30 days before their program starts, with most institutions commencing courses in late August.
This data serves as the latest alarming evidence that US preeminence is in jeopardy
Fanta Aw, NAFSA
The news is in line with earlier predictions from NAFSA and JB International forecasting a potential 30-40% decline in new international enrolments this fall, which would amount to $7bn in losses for the US economy.
“Unwelcoming rhetoric, restrictive policies and visa issuance uncertainties are having an undeniably negative effect on international students’ perception of this country as a desirable destination to study, conduct research or start a business,” said Aw.
NAFSA and other stakeholders are urging the state department to prioritise visa appointments for international students and to exempt them from Trump’s travel ban which bars nationals from 19 countries from entering the US on student visas.
The near month-long pause on student visa interviews at embassies around the world has wreaked havoc on the sector.
Despite it being lifted on June 26, US-bound students continued to report a scarcity of appointments, with ones that went ahead being subject to enhanced social media vetting often causing further delays.
Even before the freeze, visa issuance had started to fall as a result of hostile federal policies including the administration’s mass revocation of student visas last spring and its continued assault on Harvard University.
In May this year, the US state department issued 22% fewer international student visas, building on a 15% year-on-year fall in the first half of the fiscal year (October 2024 – March 2025).
While the true picture will become clear as students arrive on campus, Aw warned last month: “This is not a one-year problem. The ripple effect could conceivably go on for years.”
“For the United States to succeed in the global economy, we must keep our doors open to students from around the world.”
