The final days of 2025 brought no respite for US international education as the government finalised its overhaul of the H-1B visa process and a federal judge ruled in Trump’s favour over the new hefty $100,000 fee for certain H-1B petitions.
Prior to this, the White House set the stage for what’s to come, releasing its new National Security Strategy (NSS) in November 2025, which vowed to end “the era of mass migration” and sent a clear signal breaking the decades-long link between immigration and innovation.
“In our every principle and action, America and Americans must always come first,” the strategy states. “We cannot allow meritocracy to be used as a justification to open America’s labour market to the world in the name of finding ‘global talent’ that undercuts American workers.”
Accordingly, stakeholders are expecting 2026 to see a continuation of Trump’s broad anti-immigration crackdown, and are paying close attention to expected changes to Optional Practical Training (OPT) and duration of status. Here, we speak to experts on the ground about their predictions for the year ahead.
All eyes on OPT
With changes widely anticipated, stakeholders are watching how far the administration will go in its restriction of OPT, which enables international students to gain post-graduation work experience in the US for up to three years while remaining in student status.
“It’s almost certain OPT will come under greater scrutiny. And that conversation itself will shake students’ confidence in the US as a destination that promises a good return on investment,” said Eddie West, assistant vice president of international affairs at California State University, Fresno.
“The best-case scenario will be stepped up enforcement, as opposed to the reduction in actual work benefits,” West added.
Boston College professor Chris Glass said he expected OPT to be “significantly overhauled”, though he warned full elimination was not off the cards.
Glass pointed to the proposed rule on the Unified Agenda explicitly framing changes in terms of fraud and national security terms, protecting US workers, and strengthening SEVP oversight, “which puts OPT and compliance requirements squarely in play”.
“If overhauled, expect OPT to narrow eligibility and increase employer documentation and government oversight, raising the compliance burden of hiring international graduates.”
“If eliminated, the enrolment at many institutions would drop sharply,” said Glass, highlighting a recent survey that found over half of current international students wouldn’t have enrolled in US institutions had OPT been rescinded.
Elsewhere, Education Rethink co-founder Anna Esaki-Smith said the elimination of OPT could be a “genuine game-changer” for international enrolments in the US.
“OPT has been a major driver of international student growth. Without the prospect of working in the US after graduation, high tuition and living costs – combined with an increasingly unwelcoming climate – are likely to dampen international student demand,” she said.
Could duration of status be axed?
For Glass, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)’s August 2025 proposed rule to replace duration of status with fixed time periods for student and exchange visitor visas is the “most consequential near-term change” facing the sector.
The proposal rehashes a policy from Trump’s first term, which would establish a four-year time limit on student visas and end the current system where students can remain in the US for the duration of their studies.
Critics have said the changes would place an undue administrative burden on students, highlighting that just over one-third of all students – domestic and international – completed their degrees in four years or less in 2023/24.
As compared to the threat of ending OPT, West weighed that eliminating duration of status could have a “relatively negligible impact on student decision-making”, though stakeholders have emphasised the damaging combined impact of policy volatility more broadly.
“The fears are real,” said Terra Dotta SVP Travis Ulrich. “Policy turbulence – from the elimination of duration of status, to restrictions on OPT and H-1B pathways, to visa slowdowns – threatens perceptions of the US being a welcome country of opportunity.”
Ulrich said other destinations such as Canada and Australia were capitalising on the uncertainty with streamlined policies and clearer employment routes, with the former set to announce plans for an accelerated visa process aimed at H-1B visa holders in the US.
What could happen to international enrolment trends?
Following sustained policy turbulence unleashed under Trump’s second term, new international student enrolments fell by 17% in Fall 2025, with commentators anticipating further declines in 2026.
“Policy uncertainty makes a US degree feel like a riskier bet, especially when other countries can offer more predictable post-study outcomes and clearer policy stability,” said Glass, adding that institutions would feel the impact of declines unevenly.
“Universities and programs with strong employment signalling and credible pathways will be more resilient, while price-sensitive segments and institutions that rely on frictionless post-completion work options will be more exposed,” he warned.
I hope universities draw a clear line against actions that undermine academic freedom and their core mission
Anna Esaki-Smith, Education Rethink
West doubled down on the likelihood of further declines, which he said were almost sure to continue beyond Fall 2026, setting off a vicious cycle of having fewer word of mouth reports to assure prospective students that the reality on US campuses was not as bad as media reports suggest.
Meanwhile, he expected the hostile climate in the US would accelerate the current trend of diversification beyond the ‘big four’ – pointing to Europe and Asia as the fastest growing beneficiaries of shifting student flows.
Is there any hope for the sector in 2026?
“When push comes to shove, I hope universities draw a clear line against actions that undermine academic freedom and their core mission,” said Esaki-Smith.
“We are in an unusually difficult moment, which makes even small victories matter,” she said, welcoming the fact that universities did not openly endorse Trump’s proposed higher education ‘compact’, which could have raised serious ethical concerns.
West said the increased sector attention on quality assurance in international student recruitment provided some cause for optimism, with the UK “leading the way” on due diligence on agent activity.
Elsewhere, Glass said he hoped universities would meet the moment with steady resolve and long-term thinking. He said the sector needed “predictability, security, and a welcoming environment, which are all things institutions can actively deliver even when federal policy is volatile.”
“That means investing in immigration advising capacity, employer coordination, housing and affordability, and program designs that translate clearly into labour-market outcomes,” he advised.
Ulrich added that the most promising opportunities for stability lay in “rethinking global partnerships”, including dual degrees, research collaborations, exchanges, and industry pathways. “Strategy matters more than ever”, he said.
Though a long way off, commentators said November’s 2026 midterm elections – which will determine control of Congress midway through the presidential term – could be pivotal, with early signs of Democrat victories prompting hopes that a political shift could ease pressure on the sector.
