Another year of missed targets?
After two years of caps and constraints, Canadian stakeholders have said they are fatigued but hopeful about the year ahead. In the face of visa processing delays and record-low approval rates, experts widely anticipate inbound mobility to remain constrained in 2026, with study permit issuance unlikely to meet this year’s target of 408,000, including 155,000 new student arrivals.
“While we might see a slight rebound, overall intake will stay below past highs as the government maintains a cautious approach,” said Chris Busch, University of Windsor assistant VP of enrolment management.
Having missed federal targets in both 2024 and 2025, Busch said he was “sceptical” the target would be reached, though he noted it was “more realistic” than previous years and welcomed the exemption of graduate students.
“While I’m cautiously optimistic we’ll improve on 2025 numbers, hitting the full target will be a stretch,” he said.
Meanwhile, CBIE president Larissa Bezo said she was “hopeful” that increased applications, improved processing times and approval rates would “ideally” result in meeting the 2026 target of 155,000 new student arrivals – a near 50% reduction on the previous year.
As two years of restrictions continue to play out, “many international students will be graduating from their programs of study, with a much smaller number of new incoming students to take their place,” said Bezo, predicting “another challenging year” for institutions.
Since January 2024, study permit numbers have fallen far short of government caps, with stakeholders criticising the government’s “key miscalculation” in assuming that allocated volumes would automatically translate into issued permits.
“This underestimates the cumulative effects of the past two years, including reputational damage, rapid policy churn, inconsistent messaging and shifting eligibility criteria,” said Philipp Reichert, UBC director of global engagement.
And yet, with a credible period of policy stability, accompanied by faster processing times and more positive messaging, “realised permit volumes could recover closer to stated targets”, said Reichert.
Though believing in the possibility of partial recovery, “any such recovery is likely to be selective rather than system-wide”, warned Reichert, with the strongest gains across graduate, PhD and research programs, as well as fields aligned with national workforce objectives.
Meanwhile, after a sharp post-pandemic decline, Peralta said demand for English and French studies in Canada remained strong, expecting continued growth from Latin America, Europe and Asia, and a renewed interest in programs with clear academic or career pathways.
The vital need for faster processing and improved approvals
Across the board, stakeholders raised grave concerns about persistent unpredictability in visa outcomes and all-time-low approval rates acting as a de facto policy lever preventing students obtaining study visas.
“Visa approvals have been a mess this year. Only about 30-34% of study permit applications are getting through, a huge drop from the 50–60% range we used to see,” said Busch.
“It’s not a demand issue; students still want to come, but bottlenecks and stricter assessments are turning too many away.”
The system needs real reform, especially around fairness and consistency
Chris Busch, University of Windsor
Though hopeful about modest improvements, Busch warned not to expect a full rebound in approval rates. Meanwhile, Reichert predicted that visa approval rates would remain “uneven and opaque, particularly in high-volume source countries”.
“This is a structural challenge rather than a short-term fluctuation,” he said, calling for more realistic recruitment practices by institutions and more “transparent, timely, and predictable” decision-making from IRCC.
Meanwhile, Canada’s language programs demonstrated the strongest PAL-to-study-permit conversion rates in 2025, though Peralta said there remained “room for improvement”.
Notably, the languages sector is partially shielded from the full impact of visa restrictions, as most English and French language students in Canada arrive on visitor visas, for which there is no cap.
Growing importance of graduate mobility
In some much-needed good news for the sector, last year the government announced that graduate students would be exempt from 2026 caps, as it committed CAD$1.7bn to attracting global talent in this year’s budget.
As such, graduate, doctoral and research linked mobility will grow in relative importance, with these pathways aligning more directly with Canada’s workforce priorities and facing fewer policy headwinds, said Reichert.
“As a result, this could very well mean that institutional outcomes will increasingly be shaped by program mix and research intensity rather than only overall recruitment reach,” he predicted.
Bezo highlighted the government’s new Canada Global Impact+ Research Talent Initiative and the CBIE-led Learn Canadian campaign, which she hopes will boost prospective students’ understanding and interest in the opportunities Canada has to offer.
Deepening sector divides?
Though bringing welcome relief for certain parts of the sector, experts have said the shift towards prioritising graduate-level talent and research will further deepen institutional differences across provinces, with undergraduate and college-level enrolment remaining restricted.
Beneath the likely contraction of international students, impacts will be uneven, as public universities with graduate-heavy, doctoral and research research-intensive portfolios are predicted to remain comparatively insulated.
“By contrast, colleges, smaller institutions, and those heavily dependent on pathway programs, short-cycle credentials, or price-sensitive undergraduate markets are likely to face sustained pressure and further enrolment declines” – a divergence that will deepen structural differences across the sector, said Reichert.
Recognising the value of international education
Amid rising anti-immigration sentiment in many of the world’s leading study destinations, inbound mobility and international education in Canada and beyond is increasingly at the mercy of domestic politics.
“General attitudes towards immigration will continue to shape the international education environment,” said Reichert, highlighting the increasing disconnect between public discourse and economic reality, particularly around the integration of doctors and researchers essential to Canada’s economic growth and public services.
Institutions that reposition international education as core public infrastructure rather than pushing discretionary enrolment growth will be better positioned to navigate this period, Reichert advised, with colleagues calling for the recognition of the value of international students by the Canadian public.
Busch highlighted the federal government’s new focus on ‘economic migration’ which includes faster visas for graduate students and key sectors, while the overarching system strain is causing public institutions like Windsor to “seriously explore transnational education as an alternative path”.
“We need a more balanced, evidence-based strategy, one that supports housing, cracks down on bad actors, and invests in long-term capacity,” Busch urged. “If Ottawa listens, we might get policies that protect both integrity and access.”
The impact of declining student numbers is being felt acutely at institutions across Canada – with almost 16,000 sector job losses tracked by higher education consultant Ken Steele last month, alongside a slew of program closures and other cost-cutting measures.
The prevailing policy environment should be understood as one of prolonged managed constraint
Philipp Reichert, UBC
As the repercussions spread beyond the institutional level, Bezo said she hoped to see “increased recognition on the part of Canadians about the value that international students bring to Canadian communities and businesses”.
Commentators have said the fiscal impacts of the policy changes will be most pronounced in provinces confronting demographic decline and persistent workforce shortages, calling once again for a more stable and predictable policy environment.
Hope on the horizon?
“My hope for 2026 is that the conversation becomes more balanced, recognising the immense value international students bring to our campuses, communities and economy,” said Peralta.
He said Canada’s language sector was entering the year “feeling a mix of fatigue and optimism” and saw both a challenge and an opportunity from international education’s position firmly in the spotlight of Canadian public discourse.
“The prevailing policy environment should be understood as one of prolonged managed constraint,” said Reichert, predicting a “gradual but real rebalancing toward quality and preparedness over volume” as well as rising return on investment expectations from students.
“The key signal to watch is whether political discourse begins to acknowledge the downstream impacts of current policy choices on the postsecondary system and on domestic students,” he said, highlighting the forthcoming auditor general report on the International Student Program that will shape the direction of travel.
Elsewhere, Busch said he would be watching the next budget closely for “signs of investment in housing or visa processing, real indicators of political will”.
“The next two years will reveal whether Canada sticks with restriction or shifts to a more balanced strategy, and we’ll be ready to adapt either way.”
