Venezuelan outbound mobility
The US capture of Nicolás Maduro from the Venezuelan capital on January 3 has dominated global headlines and drawn serious legal questions over Washington’s actions.
Though the instability has caused heightened uncertainty among Venezuelan students at home and in the US, as well as logistical travel constraints, experts say the long-term impact on Venezuelan outbound mobility – already hampered by Maduro’s regime – could be negligible.
“I want to emphasize that this is not a new issue… I don’t believe the latest developments will have a materially different impact on student mobility than what we’ve already seen,” said Jimmy Battaglia, head of growth at Capio enrolment platform and Venezuelan education expert.
Battaglia emphasised the socio-economic consequences of Venezuela’s dictatorship – forcing the displacement of 30% of the population – had already caused many countries previously not requiring visas for Venezuelans to implement them or tighten restrictions.
“Venezuela’s situation has been deteriorating for decades and has only worsened in recent years,” said Battaglia, adding that the outbound student market was “already quite small”, with most mobility coming from Venezuelans living in Colombia or Panama.
Nevertheless, as the dramatic seizure of Maduro coincided with the start of the year, experts have said heightened uncertainty will naturally lead to delays in decision-making for 2026 study plans as families wait for clarity on political stability, visa processing and travel conditions.
“The most significant impact… is on student mobility logistics, timelines and confidence in cross-border educational planning,” said an education agent operating in Venezuela, speaking under anonymity.
“While academic institutions continue to function, they are operating under significant stress, with faculty, staff, and students navigating an environment of anxiety and instability.”
“Institutions are experiencing the same climate of tension and unpredictability as the country as a whole,” they said.
As for educational relations with the US, the number of Venezuelan students studying in the US has diminished over the past decade, with 3,886 Venezuelans studying in America last year, and less than 2,500 Venezuelan students registered in US federal systems as of last month.
The downturn comes amid Trump’s June 2025 travel ban, which barred Venezuelan nationals from obtaining US study visas, with the recent breakdown in relations expected to exacerbate the existing downward trend.
“Over the past year, we’ve seen a rising share of Venezuelan student interest shifting toward European degrees – particularly to Spain, Italy, Germany, and Belgium,” said Studyportals head of communication Cara Skikne.
We expect recent military and diplomatic upheavals to reinforce a broader trend of Venezuelan students looking toward Europe and other emerging study destinations
Cara Skikne, Studyportals
“We expect… recent military and diplomatic upheavals to reinforce a broader trend of Venezuelan students looking toward Europe and other emerging study destinations,” she added.
Alongside European countries seeing increased interest, QS senior consultant Gabriela Geron emphasised Latin America’s strong intra-regional mobility and predicted continued Venezuelan student interest in Argentina, Chile and Mexico.
Meanwhile, the anonymous agent who spoke to The PIE emphasised there was no indication of systemic limitation toward Venezuelan students because of recent events, noting that “stakeholders continue to prioritise individual merit, academic preparedness and long-term potential over short-term political circumstances”.
What about Venezuelan students already in the US?
Trump’s presidency has brought huge uncertainty for the near 2,500 Venezuelan students registered in US SEVIS systems, with December’s revised travel ban barring Venezuelan nationals from studying in America, while, in theory, not applying to those already in the country holding a valid visa.
“Most schools are recommending that students from travel ban countries avoid international travel unless absolutely necessary during this period”, said Fragomen immigration partner Aaron Blumberg.
“If they continue to comply with the terms of their F-1 status… they may remain in the US and continue their studies”, though there is some risk of confusion or inconsistent application of the new rules at the border, explained Blumberg.
Meanwhile, amid recent escalations, the government has provided mixed messages about options for Venezuelans in the US, particularly for those granted Temporary Protected Status (TPS) in 2021 and 2023.
Though DHS secretary Kristi Noem said Venezuelans with TPS would be eligible to apply for refugee status, a social media post from the department later contradicted this account, stating: “Secretary Noem ended Temporary Protected Status for more than 500,000 Venezuelans and now they can go home to a country that they love.”
The Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration and NAFSA said they were unaware of any students being involved in the stripping of Venezuelans’ TPS protections.
However, given the numbers, Zuzana Cepla Wootson, deputy director of federal policy at the Presidents’ Alliance, said “it would not be surprising if some of those individuals were students, faculty, or staff at US colleges” – advising Venezuelan students to seek qualified immigration counsel.
Regional repercussions
Amid Venezuelan students turning away from the US, Battaglia said broader Latin American interest in US institutions had “softened somewhat” but remained strong.
“Visa issuance, rather than demand, is the primary bottleneck,” he said, with US institutions seeing a “noticeable decline” in visa approval rates in the region.
Geron said she would be closely monitoring the unfolding situation and its repercussions for student interest and mobility in the region, highlighting the significance of student flows from Colombia, Mexico and Brazil, and not ruling out further changes to US visa regulations.
Elsewhere, stakeholders said political instability and safety concerns in Venezuela would continue to hamper its growth as a study destination and drive a decline in inbound mobility.
“That said, there are many countries across Latin America that remain relatively safe, stable and attractive for international education,” said Battaglia, highlighting the “extremely diverse region with a wide range of education options”.
