Speaking at the ECAA‘s 2025 Melbourne conference, Matthew Noble, assistant secretary temporary visas, Department of Home Affairs, detailed how recent policy changes and shifting demand are reshaping the international education landscape.
Student visa lodgements fell to around 427,000 in 2024–25, down from nearly 600,000 the year prior. Refusal rates remained at around 18%, though this marks a slight improvement on last year. Declines in applications have been sharpest in VET and ELICOS, while higher education enrolments have lifted modestly beyond pre-pandemic levels.
Top lodgement countries remained relatively stable with China, India and Nepal remaining the top three source countries for student visa lodgements. Pakistan dropped out of the top 10, replaced by Bangladesh.
While offshore decisions are generally finalised within 25 days, the Department is working to reduce the larger onshore caseload. As of 31 July, around 67,000 applications lodged in Australia were awaiting decision — down by a third from over 100,000 a year earlier. Noble acknowledged that the 153-day median processing time for such applications remains higher than desired.
Key policy levers are also influencing outcomes. The visa application charge rose to AUD $2,000 in July 2025, placing pressure on shorter-term and lower-cost sectors. National Planning Levels have been set at 295,000 commencements for 2025–26, representing a 9.3% increase. Under Ministerial Direction 111, “priority one” providers under 80% of their planning allocation are receiving one-to-four week turnarounds, while others face waits of five to eight weeks.
The most significant change remains the Genuine Student (GS) requirement (under Ministerial Direction 106), which replaced the Genuine Temporary Entrant (GTE) test. Now the leading driver of refusals, GS demands that applicants clearly demonstrate study as their primary purpose. Generic statements, poor academic progression, course downgrading and weak financial evidence are frequent grounds for refusal.
Strong, evidence-backed GS statements and credible financial documentation remain at the core of approvals
Matthew Noble, DHA
“Decision-ready applications are critical,” Noble told the audience. “Strong, evidence-backed GS statements and credible financial documentation remain at the core of approvals.” He urged providers and agents to scrutinise applications more rigorously, warning that fraudulent or implausible submissions risk undermining trust across the system.
While acknowledging sector concerns — particularly from ELICOS providers grappling with higher fees and refusal rates — Noble sought to assure stakeholders that English study is still viewed as a legitimate and valuable pathway.
