The new Shorelight study tracks F-1 visa refusals over the last decade, during which visa denials have not only increased across the board, but have become structurally concentrated in specific regions, especially in Africa and South Asia.
“When a student’s likelihood of entry depends more on their country of origin than their academic credentials or funding, the integrity of the US visa system is compromised,” states the report.
While across the board, refusal rates have climbed from 23% in 2015 to 35% in 2025, they have also become structurally concentrated in specific regions, the data shows.
“This matters in the context of sustained and growing global demand,” said Shorelight CEO Tom Dretler: “Today, roughly 1.2 million new students each year are seeking a Western degree taught in English, and that number continues to grow.”
“The US is not hitting a ceiling; we are effectively building one through policy,” said Dretler, adding that there remained an opportunity to course-correct and maintain America’s global leadership in attracting international students.
And while the refusal rate appeared to stabilise in 2023 and 2024, last year saw a notable upward trend in denials across Africa and in several countries in South Asia and the Middle East, with the report warning the current adjudication landscape in creating “localised refusal clusters”.
African countries have consistently seen the highest denial rates of any region, which reached an all-time high of 64% last year.
Most notably, refusal rates in Somalia and Sierra Leone soared to 91% and 90% respectively, while Sudan’s refusal rate rose from 54% to 76% last year.
With African countries making up over half of the 19 countries targeted by Trump’s June 2025 travel ban, refusals from this region were likely worsened by the policy, which halted F-1 visa issuance for students from the impacted nations.
While every region experienced a rise in denials except South America where they remained steady, the report warned the global distribution of refusal rates was “increasingly polarised”, with more countries moving into the 70-80% category.
The US is not hitting a ceiling; we are effectively building one through policy
Tom Dretler, Shorelight
Notably, Iran, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India all saw significant year-on-year spikes, with refusal rates in 2025 upwards of 60%.
The report raised heightened concerns about India, the US’s largest sending country, warning such a high denial rate was “cutting off a critical talent pipeline for US universities, employers and the economy,” creating a “self-inflicted talent shortage”.
More broadly, it said US visa policy was operating in in “direct opposition” to global demographic realities – “ignoring a ‘demographic dividend’ that other competitor countries are capitalising on”.
Strikingly, it notes the post-secondary student population of sub-Saharan Africa will swell to 90 million by 2050, with over half of that growth originating solely from Nigeria – where students are currently blocked from studying in the US.
“The US is currently the only nation with the institutional capacity to handle this global growth, yet we are actively ceding our lead through a self-imposed talent embargo,” it states, pointing to “aggressive” recruitment expansion in countries such as France and China.
The report estimates the other ‘big four’ countries are home to less than 400 institutions between them. While Germany has approximately 400 and China 3,000 universities, the US boasts 4,000 degree-granting institutions.
Elsewhere, it warns economic consequences of the “missed opportunity” are already being felt across US campuses and communities, which, given the 36% drop in visa issuance last summer, could be as high as $3bn lost in tuition revenue alone.
Shorelight’s experts set out various recommendations for the government, calling for greater transparency in visa denials, standardised financial guidance, and specialised training for high-refusal consulates.
They argue current requirements force students to demonstrate nonimmigrant intent – even as many hope to gain career experience in the US – and advocate for the expansion of ‘dual intent’ to F-1 applicants to reduce the risk of arbitrary and subjective denials.
What’s more, highlighting that over 70% of students consider the ability to gain work experience when choosing a study destination, the report calls for the safeguarding of OPT by codifying it in US law – something recently put to Congress in a new bipartisan bill.
The recommendations add to a growing chorus of sector advocacy as summer visa season approaches, including NAFSA’s renewed demands for expedited visa appointments and processing for students and exchange visitors, as well as their exemption from travel bans.
The PIE News reached out to the State Department for comment but didn’t immediately receive a reply.
