Institutions are therefore being urged to adopt more agile, proactive and student-centred strategies to better withstand visa-related disruption and sustain international enrolment, despite difficult external circumstances.
“Policy pressures are intensifying. But while external conditions set the context, they don’t fully determine outcomes,” said Edwin van Rest, CEO of Studyportals.
“Universities that are agile, proactive and supportive of students are much better positioned to absorb visa disruption and sustain enrolment,” he added.
The Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey, conducted by NAFSA, the Oxford Test of English and Studyportals, found that half of respondents reported lower enrolments compared with the same Q1 intake last year.
Across the “Big Four” — Australia, Canada, the UK and the US — universities reported substantial declines in both undergraduate and postgraduate enrolment
Declines were both more common and more severe than enrolment growth, with the US recording the sharpest fall, with postgraduate enrolments down an average of 24%.
Nearly three in four universities (73%) pointed to restrictive government policies and visa issues as major challenges. Two-thirds (67%) said these were the primary factor weighing on enrolment numbers.
Meanwhile, half of universities surveyed pointed to affordability concerns and cost of living as issues holding students back. Scholarships, fee waivers, competitive discount rates, and targeted financial aid were flagged as influencing student decisions.
Where institutions reported gains in international enrolment, these were largely driven by factors within their control, such as internal strategies and decisions rather than external market or policy conditions.
Launching new programs was the most commonly cited driver of enrolment growth, followed by market diversification and strategic marketing.
Several universities also pointed to the introduction of January start dates as a way to manage visa unpredictability and retain students who might otherwise defer or withdraw. Institutions that had offered January intakes for a second year – or promoted them across a full recruitment cycle – reported stronger traction.
“Despite an increasingly uncertain policy environment, the survey shows that institutions willing to innovate and adapt can still create meaningful pathways for student success and access,” commented Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA.
“Therefore, student flows depend on both institutional resilience and policies that enable, rather than restrict, global talent mobility. Institutions can and must exercise greater agency to counter serious external forces,” she added.
The report’s authors concluded that global demand for international education remains strong, and that the institutions best placed to capture this demand are “the ones that treat uncertainty not as a reason to pause, but as a reason to think differently”.
