The US is set to see a decline in international student interest following Trump’s return to the White House which could benefit the UK, a new report from the British Council has predicted.
Combined with greater restrictions in Australia and Canada, the UK is likely to be seen as the “most welcoming” of the ‘big four’ study destinations and could experience a rise in international student applications, the study found.
“While our English-speaking competitors might be experiencing challenges, we must not grow complacent,” warned Maddalaine Ansell, British Council education director.
“There is work to be done to boost recruitment from a larger number of smaller markets, in making greater investments in TNE, and in continuing ensure that the UK recruits highly qualified international students from across the globe,” she added.
The number of international enrolments in the US declined every year of Trump’s first term in office, highlighted the report.
Three years into his presidency there were 50,000 fewer international students in the US than when he was inaugurated for the first time.
The report cites continued uncertainty over the US’s post-graduation work route, OPT, and H1-B skilled worker visas, which could lead to US education to “lose some of its lustre” for international students, it warned.
Since returning to the White House, Trump signed a record 50 executive orders in less than three weeks, threatening to overhaul the US immigration system and presenting unprecedented challenges for US higher education.
In Trump’s first term, declines in enrolments were sharpest in students from the Middle East and North Africa, Central America and Europe, noted the report.
However, inbound mobility from East Asia increased, and commentators have noted that the international higher education landscape is much more complex this time around.
Furthermore, research has shown that presidential elections are not decisive for most international students coming to the US, with a survey conducted during Trump’s campaign trail showing a large amount of “indifference” towards the sitting president.
Meanwhile, the study predicts that caps and restrictions in Canada and Australia, will further boost the UK’s attractiveness.
We must not grow complacent
Maddalaine Ansell, British Council
Last year, the UK’s international reputation took a battering following the government’s review of the graduate route and implementation of the dependants ban, contributing to a 14% dip in student visa applications in 2024.
According to UCAS data, this trend could already be on the reverse, with study visa applications in January 2025 more than 12.5% higher than 2024 providing a glimmer of hope for the UK sector.
Despite India recently overtaking China as the largest source of international students in the UK, the report predicts the number of new students from India “will almost surely decline” in major host destinations in 2025.
This trend has already shown itself in the big four destinations, with UK study visas issued to Indian students falling by over 25% in the first three quarters of 2024, and US and Australian levels seeing a 34% and 20% decline respectively.
Meanwhile in Canada, restrictions are also hitting Indian student populations, with immigration minister Marc Miller recently telling Canadian institutions to diversify recruitment strategies beyond India.
And yet, “long-term fundamentals” in India remain strong, with rising incomes, favourable demographics and cultural preferences for English-language education all pointing to continued growth in outbound mobility, noted the report.
Elsewhere outside of the big four, markets in East Asia will continue to benefit from an upward shift in international student mobility, with Malaysia seeing continued growth after witnessing record numbers of international student applications in 2024.
While China remains the largest sending and host market in the region, international student enrolled has declined since the pandemic and “the picture remains more mixed” according to the report.
And yet, the demand for postgraduate education has continued to rise among Chinese students, with UK institutions advised to demonstrate the return on investment of their postgraduate courses amid competitions from less expensive East Asian destinations.
Even as overall international enrolments across the big four shrink, the UK is expected to increase its share of this cohort, helped by UK HEIs expanding program offerings and increasing January intakes.
The report advised that UK institutions invest in recruiting students from smaller markets and building stronger TNE partnerships to further increase their attractiveness.
