As Canada’s approach to its immigration system – particularly its international student program – reaches a tipping point, its global reputation as a promising destination for hard-working students and skilled talent could be seriously threatened, a risk the country cannot afford given its aging population.
On October 24, 2024, IRCC released the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, which included a significant 20% reduction to permanent resident targets and – for the first time – temporary resident targets for international students and temporary foreign workers. On the same day, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tweeted (and American President re-elect Donald Trump notably re-tweeted):
“We’re going to significantly reduce the number of immigrants coming to Canada for the next two years. This is temporary – to pause our population growth and let our economy catch up. We have to get the system working right for all Canadians.”
Immigration has been a hot political topic lately, and these measures are emblematic of a substantial shift in public support for immigration in Canada over the past couple of years. A new reality has unfolded across the country, with anti-immigration sentiment surging, largely influenced by mixed messaging in traditional media and, increasingly, social media due to conflations between high rates of immigration and rising housing costs and inflation.
An October 2022 poll by the Environics Institute found that seven out of 10 Canadians were supportive of current immigration levels, marking the largest majority recorded by Environics in 45 years. This is in stark contrast, an October 2024 Environics Institute report demonstrates almost six out of 10 Canadians believe Canada accepts too many immigrants.
The report further shows that Canadians who believe there is too much immigration cite concerns over lack of housing, the economy, over population, and potential strain on public finances, and an “increasing minority” – 39% – of Canadians believe too many immigrants are accepted from racial minority groups and that 35% think immigration increases crime levels.
Anti-immigrant sentiment espoused by politicians creates further division in society and is likely to result in increased incidents of violence and discrimination against racialised people in Canada. Misguided news reports discussing incidents of crime carried out by international students, citing data on foreign nationals, which includes but is not specific to international students, surely conflates issues and risks further disseminating misinformation and anti-immigrant sentiments.
Recent reports indicating “nearly 14,000” asylum claims have been filed by international students in Canada in 2024 will undoubtedly cause panic and questioning of Canada’s important asylum system. In response, immigration minister Marc Miller has recently hinted at plans to fast-track refugee refusals.
This dramatic shift is concerning given the importance of immigration for Canada’s economic prosperity and longevity, which are dependent on immigration. The availability of a strong, robust, and qualified tax-paying labour force positively contributes to funding public services, such as health care and education, and Canada’s overall economy.
This dramatic shift is concerning given the importance of immigration for Canada’s economic prosperity and longevity, which are dependent on immigration
This need for immigration is largely due to Canada’s aging population, with five million Canadians set to retire by 2030. Earlier this year, Carolyn Rogers, the senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, spoke about Canada’s “long-standing, poor record on productivity” and reported that immigration is driving the increase in Canada’s workforce. This speech further highlighted the importance of “leveraging” and “developing” the skills of new immigrants as “crucial to the future of Canada’s economy.”
Despite its importance, the increasing unpredictably of Canada’s immigration system is likely to jeopardize its integrity and global reputation. The many consequences of an immigration misinformation era remain to be seen and are complex and far-reaching.
In July 2024, Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian Economics for Desjardins, reported on research that indicated that reducing population growth through decreased temporary resident admissions will reduce both real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation, with resulting lower revenues leading to larger deficits and higher debt.
An October 2024 report by Bartlett further warned of a risk of recession if the federal government successfully reduces the number of temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s population over the next three years, since this would necessitate a decrease of approximately one million people.
In a brief YouTube video released on November 17, 2024, Prime Minister Trudeau set out to explain why Canada was “changing its immigration system” and blaming several bad and “really bad” actors. However, this is a complex issue and while he explains the goal of these temporary measures (ie capping intake on international students) is to pause Canada’s population, he does not address how this will be accomplished without sending the country into a recession, as noted above.
In fact, the Prime Minister acknowledges in this video that an increase in temporary overseas workers after the pandemic was critical in avoiding a recession. The Prime Minister also states that most temporary residents who lose status will go home, which is doubtful in reality as many of these temporary residents have been living in Canada for years, are well established, and are seeking to find ways to remain. In fact, many international students receive advice from their university or college’s international student advisors regarding ways to challenge immigration refusals, including making reconsideration requests, restoration applications, and judicial reviews in Federal Court.
The international student program has seen significant changes in 2024. For example, without any notice, IRCC ended the Student Direct Stream (SDS) on November 8, 2024. The SDS streamlined and expedited applications for international students from 14 countries, including India and China.
Additionally, as of November 15, 2024, international students are now required to apply for and receive a new study permit before changing learning institutions. This is an onerous departure from the previous norm and may result in increasing, rather than decreasing, the backlog of applications.
Canadian post-secondary institutions are already reporting “waning interest,” particularly amongst Indian students, who represent almost half of all international students in Canada. Canada has reportedly quickly fallen to fourth place as a top destination for international students according to an October 2024 report by ICEF Monitor as students seek to study in Europe, Australia, the UK or the US instead.
The re-election of Trump in the 2024 American election will undoubtedly have further negative impacts on the situation in Canada. According to a 2022 report by the Migration Policy Institute, “Trump’s election brought into mainstream political discourse the previously fringe idea that legal immigration is a threat to the United States’ economy and security”.
A Gallup poll has identified immigration as the most important problem in the US for 27% of Americans. As part of his platform, Trump took advantage of these increasingly negative sentiments to promote his “hardline immigration policies” as part of his 2024 election platform, including plans to deport millions of unauthorised people. Recently, international students in Canada have been protesting the recent changes, especially as thousands may face deportation.
The re-election of Trump in the 2024 American election will undoubtedly have further negative impacts on the situation in Canada
Recent reports indicate that Canada refused entry to almost 6,000 foreign nationals (students, workers, and tourists) in July 2024 – the highest number since January 2019. Canada is also reportedly deporting migrants at the highest rate in more than a decade. Rather than blaming immigrants, Canada must improve its immigration system to facilitate the entry of skilled immigrants needed to resolve ongoing labour shortages and increase the housing supply. Beyond the humanitarian concerns, removing thousands of educated and skilled foreign nationals from Canada cannot possibly be the right solution, particularly in light of the long-term need for immigration.
In many ways, the media is failing to relay an important message, backed up by the Bank of Canada and senior economists, that immigration is absolutely essential to Canada in the long-term. Arbitrary limits and pauses to immigration could have long-term negative impacts on Canada’s global reputation and economic growth.
As skilled immigrants either voluntarily leave or are literally forced out, Canada’s reputation is likely to suffer at a time when it cannot really afford to be damaged. How can the government ensure that this pause will not have far-reaching and long-term impacts that negatively impact Canada’s labour force and economic prosperity?
In the US, Donald Trump has confirmed he will utilise the military to conduct mass deportations. How long would it take for Canada’s reputation to repair if it follows suit and increases removals? Innovation and progress will surely suffer, and so will Canada’s ability to attract the best talent.
It is in Canada’s best interests for the government to advocate the crucial benefits of immigration and policies that align with Canada’s long-term economic goals. Rather than blaming temporary residents, the government must implement stricter penalties for non-compliance by bad actors and align intake goals with in-demand industries and long-term economic goals.
A properly functioning immigration system is critical to attracting and retaining foreign workers, particularly in the construction and health sectors, and preventing onward migration. The government could also increase pathways for entrepreneurs who can stimulate the economy with significant minimum investments and job creation. It is clear from the pandemic-related labour shortages, Canada cannot afford to lose more skilled talent in the short and long-term.
