Last week, Canada announced that it has expelled six Indian diplomats and consular officials, including Indian high commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma over allegations that Indian government agents are involved in ‘serious criminal activity’ on Canadian soil.
The Canadian government made the announcement after it found the Indian officials to be persons of interest in the killing of a prominent Sikh activist based in Canada.
While denying the allegations, India expelled six Canadian diplomats, including acting High Commissioner Stewart Ross Wheeler, in a tit-for-tat move.
Though caps on study permits, PGWP changes, increased savings requirements, and other changes have already contributed to a drop in numbers from India, the recent issues could make matters worse.
“The ongoing diplomatic tensions between India and Canada have significantly impacted Indian students’ interest in pursuing higher education in Canada,” said Manisha Zaveri, joint managing director, Career Mosaic.
“We foresee a 20% decline in Indian student applications to Canadian institutions, continuing the downward trend driven by visa delays, housing challenges, and diplomatic tensions.”
Canada, last year withdrew 41 diplomats from India after Indian government intervention following the Trudeau administration’s accusations concerning Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s murder.
This led to a shortage of staff in India, with the Consulates General of Canada in Bengaluru, Chandigarh and Mumbai temporarily suspending in-person operations.
With more Canadian diplomats set to leave in India in the coming weeks, institutions are concerned about the uncertainty it will create in their coordination efforts with the Canadian Mission in India.
“In light of the recent expulsion of Canadian diplomats from India, this diplomatic shift has created a significant void in understanding the on-ground requirements and nuances specific to the Indian context,” said Priyanka Roy, senior recruitment advisor, York University.
“With unrelated commissioners being stationed in the education sector, there is a noticeable lack of familiarity with the unique visa application and processing challenges faced by students.”
Recent research by IDP revealed that Canada has the highest rate (19%) of ‘decliners’ among international students, who originally intended to study there but eventually changed their plans.
The tensions between India and Canada have only contributed to more Indian students, the biggest cohort of international students in the North American country, considering other options.
“I was planning to go to Canada, but my father asked me to reconsider. I will wait and watch how things unfold between India and Canada before making any decision,” said Navpreet Singh, a student from Punjab.
According to Maria Mathai, founder, MM Advisory Services, the deterioration of relations between India and Canada, since last year, has had a considerable impact on student mobility trends for Fall 2024.
“While the diplomatic tensions have contributed to reduced interest, we don’t expect the latest developments to cause any additional decline. Those who were primarily concerned about the diplomatic situation have already chosen alternative destinations,” said Mathai.
Mathai, who has been working in the Canada-India education space for over 20 years, now spends more time addressing misinformation and actual campus experience in Canada.
“A significant portion of our effort goes into addressing misinformation and providing context to incomplete or misleading information circulating on social media platforms,” she told The PIE News.
“We are actively engaging with industry stakeholders, including educational agents and school counsellors, providing them with real-time updates to ensure they can guide prospective students accurately.”
While the diplomatic tensions have contributed to reduced interest, we don’t expect the latest developments to cause any additional decline
Maria Mathai, MM Advisory Services.
As per Pranav Rathi, associate director, international recruitment and market development, Fanshawe College, although India-Canada relations have led to a dip in applications and enquiries from India, changes in the international student program remains the major factor.
“While the recent diplomatic tensions have naturally impacted the applications and our enquiries, the major impact on student mobility and applications has been due to the recent and ongoing changes to the international student program,” said Rathi.
“We are seeking assurance from the Canadian government that the changes to the international student program have concluded knowing that the price of a Canadian education remains a solid investment today and tomorrow.”
Though parents are increasingly monitoring the rising tensions between India and Canada, universities are optimistic about the decline in the South Asian country being temporary.
“The encouraging news is that universities remain highly confident in the market and believe the current situation is temporary, with an expected reversal in the near future,” said Jasminder Khanna, co-founder, Gresham Global.
“Universities are now placing greater emphasis on conversion strategies, focusing on educating students and stakeholders about the positive aspects of the situation.”
Realising a shift in inquiry patterns and student interest from India, Canadian institutions are also introducing programs and services to enhance their engagement in the country.
“Our team in India has launched an innovative peer-to-peer program, where current Indian students connect with applicants and their parents to share their experiences,” said Kelvin Chan, associate director, international recruitment, Toronto Metropolitan University.
“Since last November, we’ve conducted twelve such interactions focusing on popular programs like Computer Science, Business and Aeronautical Engineering.”
According to Chan, despite the “uncertain” times, current students’ positive experiences have proven invaluable in addressing concerns and questions from prospective students.
“We remain committed to student mobility between Canada and India and have added additional services and supports to demonstrate our strong commitment to international students, including dedicated immigration advising and supports, residence guarantees and favourable scholarships,” said Allison Yokom, senior director, international undergraduate enrollment, Queen’s University.
“Queen’s has a strong visa approval rating both overall and in India. We have been experiencing a decrease in applications from India over the past two years, consistent with university sector trends in Canada.”
Saurabh Arora, CEO and founder, University Living, believes Canadian institutions might have to adopt several strategies to maintain their presence despite the recent tensions.
Establishing clear communication channels, maintaining relations with local education agents, high schools, and universities, conducting joint webinars, and information sessions, leveraging alumni networks, are just some of the suggestions.
“Institutions may consider adapting their marketing strategies to better resonate with Indian students by highlighting aspects such as career opportunities, post-graduation pathways, and a welcoming environment,” said Arora.
