Universities are keeping a close watch on rising airfares and potential flight disruption ahead of upcoming student intakes, with some warning that higher travel costs and visa delays could complicate arrivals and increase deferrals.
For some UK universities, the issue has already been added to risk registers ahead of September arrivals as institutions adapt to the UK’s new Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) framework and evolving recruitment strategies.
The issue comes amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which have contributed to higher fuel surcharges, reduced connectivity on some routes and greater reliance on alternative flight paths, increasing travel costs for some international students.
Naomi Graham, vice principal, international and external relations at Edinburgh Napier University, said travel-related pressures had emerged as an additional concern amid shifting entry requirements and compliance pressures.
“We’ve put that on our risk register, and availability of flights, cost of flights, particularly if that’s combined with visa concerns as well,” she said.
Graham warned that visa delays could force some students to book travel at short notice, significantly increasing the cost of getting to the UK.
“Students are receiving visas late, and they’re not able to travel until the last minute. The cost would be double or triple what they should be paying,” she said.
“I think we will see more deferrals,” Graham said, adding that institutions have limited flexibility when it comes to accommodating late arrivals.
“Problem is, with later starts, if you extend your latest enrolment too far, you then risk non enrolment,” she added.
If there remains a reduction in flights routing through the Middle East this could mean further delays and affordability to travel to the UK to continue or commence their studies in September
Chris Chang, University of Portsmouth
Similar concerns were raised by Chris Chang, deputy vice chancellor for global engagement and student life at the University of Portsmouth, who said the conflict in the Middle East was contributing to higher travel costs and affecting travel planning for both staff and students.
“At present we are seeing costs increases for our staff and student travel in terms of much higher ticket prices due to fuel surcharges, needing to route via destinations other than the Middle East and therefore potentially more expensive carriers, and the need to maintain flexible tickets for cancellation in case there continues to be conflict in the Middle East,” said Chang.
Looking ahead to the peak August and September travel period, Chang warned that reduced connectivity and higher travel costs could affect students travelling to begin or continue their studies.
“If there remains a reduction in flights routing through the Middle East this could mean further delays and affordability to travel to the UK to continue or commence their studies in September,” he said.
“This could mean institutions then needing to make decision on late arrivals which is often compounded by UKVI application delays as we have seen in the last 12 months.”
Despite those concerns, Chang cautioned that there was not yet clear evidence that travel costs alone were driving recruitment outcomes.
“Whilst the May intake has been impacted, we have seen a reduction of students coming to study in the UK this year as compared to last year,” he said.
“Sector data has seen a decline of around 40% for May, especially in South Asia. However this is due to a number of reasons including reduction of activities in certain source markets, visa brakes by UKVI, the UK perception as unwelcoming but also due to increases in inflationary costs for study in the UK.”
The comments come amid wider recruitment pressures, with UK study visa issuance falling 32% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026.
“We have not seen evidence of fuel and transport costs being a factor, but no doubt the overall costs to study may be impacting decision making,” Chang said, adding that September 2026 was showing tentative signs of recovery in some markets despite ongoing uncertainty.
The discussion comes amid broader affordability pressures in key recruitment markets such as India, where IDP’s Emerging Futures report found that 43% of students who abandoned plans to study overseas cited tuition costs as unaffordable, ahead of rising living expenses (32%) and visa difficulties (28%).
Nikhil Jain, founder and CEO of ForeignAdmits, said travel costs were increasingly becoming part of broader affordability conversations.
“Families are now actively asking us to factor in flight costs as part of the overall study abroad budget, which wasn’t really the case two or three years ago,” he said.
Jain said some students were responding by booking flights earlier to avoid price increases.
“Students are booking tickets much earlier now, purely to avoid getting caught by a price spike,” he said.
“Earlier, a family’s checklist was simple: good university, visa approval, affordable tuition. Now they’re thinking about exchange rates, geopolitical stability, post-study work options, even which flight routes are safe and affordable.”
Others, including Kim Dixit, CEO and co-founder of The Red Pen, argued that while travel costs were becoming part of the conversation, they remained secondary to broader concerns around employability, immigration pathways and long-term career outcomes.
“Travel costs alone are usually not the deciding factor,” Dixit said.
“Conversations are increasingly centred on topics such as visa stability, post-study work opportunities, long-term immigration pathways, job prospects, and overall career outcomes after graduation.”
“We are also seeing more families prefer travelling to the US via Southeast Asian hubs rather than through the Middle East, as they currently perceive these routes to be more stable and predictable,” she added.
Mumbai-based education consultant Sushil Sukhwani, founder and director of Edwise International, took a similar view, saying significant behavioural changes had yet to emerge.
“Students and parents are yet indifferent to this,” he said, noting that many prospective students had not yet reached the flight-booking stage and may expect current geopolitical tensions to ease before departure.
“There is no major impact on student timelines regarding arrival planning, destination preferences, or deferral decisions as a result of rising travel uncertainty,” he said.
“Presently there are no shortages visible for visa dates, and there are no shortages visible for flights. It’s only a pricing issue.”
“Parents planning to study abroad overall is definitely being affected by the cost of the rupee, because of the impact of the price affordability,” he said.
The comments come as the Indian rupee remains under pressure amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions, increasing the cost of overseas study for Indian families.
Vaibhav Muke, a prospective PhD student whose visa application was rejected last month, said a total study cost of around US$105,000, rising tuition fees and uncertainty around scholarship funding had added to the financial pressures associated with pursuing education overseas.
“Exchange rate will also play a major role,” Muke said.
Similar concerns are increasingly featuring in conversations between students and recruiters, according to Jain.
“The rupee sliding past 95 to the dollar, combined with airfares to the US going up 30 to 50 percent due to fuel price hikes and certain air routes being less preferred by students, is a real hit for a middle-class family from India,” he said.
“It’s not just about getting in anymore. It’s about whether the whole picture makes financial and professional sense three to four years down the line.”
