Stakeholders heard from two heavyweight industry leaders who offered key insights into the UK’s upcoming migration whitepaper and delivered blunt warnings about what lies ahead.
Among those realities was the understanding that international students will remain in the UK’s net migration statistics, despite lobbying from the sector.
Brian Bell, chair of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) urged: “People should stop wasting their time asking for international students to be taken out of migration statistics. It’s not going to happen.”
“It is not for government ministers to decide how statistics are calculated,” he added, noting the role of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is an independent body.
He warned that undermining this principle could set a dangerous precedent – that while excluding students might seem beneficial now, it could open the door to politically motivated changes to other data in the future.
“It’s not going to happen because the ONS will comply with the UN definition of migration and that’s the appropriate thing to do,” said Bell.
People should stop wasting their time asking for international students to be taken out of migration statistics. It’s not going to happen
Brian Bell, Migration Advisory Committee
Bell’s comments came during a high-profile panel discussion where he spoke alongside Simon Marginson, emeritus professor of higher education at the University of Oxford.
“I don’t think you can take students out of the migration camp,” said Marginson. “I think that if they are temporary migrants, just like a lot of labour migration is also temporary, we would not argue to take that out of the migration count.”
Marginson is calling for a more informed and nuanced debate on immigration, arguing that clearer distinctions between different categories of migrants could help move the conversation beyond political point-scoring.
“If we get into a real discussion about migration that was meaningful and it was linked to the economy and linked to population policy and what the services can handle it and manage, then we could start to have a more nuanced public debate about education as well,” he added.
Together, the two leading voices tackled some of the most pressing challenges facing the international education sector, including anti-immigration rhetoric and the UK government’s upcoming white paper on immigration.
Meanwhile, the MAC is busier than ever, with Bell now serving in his role full-time following the Labour government’s election win, and seconded from his role as a professor of economics and head of department Kings College London.
Bell’s profile within the sector grew when the former Conservative government tasked the MAC with a rapid review of the Graduate Route. Contrary to expectations, the report recommended retaining the Graduate Route in its current form, finding no evidence of widespread abuse — though it raised concerns around agent practices and a lack of integrated planning across government policy.
“It was pretty rushed,” Bell admitted. “But do I think the report would have been very different if we’d had nine months? No,” he told the London audience.
As the UK awaits the government’s refreshed international education strategy, its immigration white paper is also set for imminent release, with net migration shaping up to be a key government priority.
If we get into a real discussion about migration that was meaningful and linked to the economy… then we could start to have a more nuanced public debate about education
Simon Marginson, University of Oxford
In the year ending June 2023, nearly 1 million people came to the UK. For the year ending June 2024, there was an estimated net migration to the UK of 728,000, marking a 20% drop from the previous 906,000, partly down to the government’s ban on dependants for students on UK postgraduate-taught courses.
The government has been clear that the expected levels in the long run are “not acceptable”, said Bell, adding that a focus of white paper will be about levers that can be used to change net migration.
Elsewhere, it is expected to focus on the proportion of graduates who remain in the UK, and about other aspects of the student visa system, including renewed concerns about the marketing of some MRes courses as a route to bring dependants, Universities UK International confirmed in an update to stakeholders.
“The home secretary is not stupid,” Bell told delegates, and warned that that universities using such loopholes won’t get away with it for long. If the government starts to see a surge, it is likely to extend the ban on dependants to those courses – and potentially further.
“The risk you run is that they’ll ban all dependants, including PHD students,” warned Bell.
Recent media reports have suggested that the government’s white paper may contain proposals to change the UK’s post-study work offering by targeting careers in which salaries do not typically rise beyond a certain level after several years. Jamie Arrowsmith, UUKi director, has since commented that he does not believe this to be a “settled policy decision”.
