Each year, the Insitute of International Education’s Open Doors Report provides an insightful and accurate snapshot of international student migration to US campuses. This year’s report included a data point with serious implications for US higher education: the decrease in foreign students in bachelor programs at American institutions.
In the academic year 2019/20, US campuses welcomed 419,321 international undergraduate students. By 2023/24, there were 342,875, a 1.4 % decrease from the previous year and a striking 18% drop since 2019/20. This fact alone is significant, but when you consider the projected declines in domestic undergraduate enrolments, the picture turns grim.
The decline in undergraduate matriculation of international students is surprising and suggests a deeper causality than simple supply and demand. At Hudson Global Scholars, I often meet with families to discuss the benefits of a US university experience – the top-notch education, cultural immersion, and post-graduation career opportunities – and I can honestly say that the demand for US bachelor’s degrees remains strong. This demand is driven by families who want their children to thrive in the global economy, one that is driven by the US.
So, what gives?
As a retrospective snapshot of student movement to American campuses, the Open Doors Report was never intended to consider the extended timeline of preparation that foreign families follow when pursuing a US bachelor’s degree for a child.
Therefore, the report can only capture those students already in the door, not those waiting on the threshold. Nor can it expose the many “gating factors” that lead to successful matriculation.
Planning for the US college experience starts in middle school
Since its founding, Hudson Global Scholars has helped over 18,000 international students participate in US education. These students come from over 25 countries and most of them are seeking a reliable pathway to American universities. International students are looking for a better education than their home nations can provide, as well as entry into world-class degree programs. But their ultimate goal is to boost career prospects – at home and abroad, in the anglophone economy.
From our many conversations with international families, we know they start considering the possibility of a US bachelor’s degree when their child is in middle school or earlier – because the decision requires careful planning.
The student must exhibit a proclivity for English language study, a willingness to work harder than most, and a desire to experience a bigger world. The family has to gather the financial resources to pay for school and living expenses, and this sometimes requires the participation of multiple generations.
However, the payback for the family and the student, in economic and career opportunities, is huge. Parents – the majority of whom are middle-class professionals – see a US education as life-changing not only for their child, but quite possibly for the entire family.
As international students approach high school graduation, their families begin exploring US campuses and degree programs. They also research the student visa process and its challenges. At this point, some families decide the cost and hassle are too great, and they drop out. However, there will always be families who are committed to sending their children to an American institution, and these families will persevere. Indeed, the Common App’s August 2024 report shows that international undergraduate applications have increased year over year by 12%, an indication of strong continuing fundamental demand.
US degrees still represent the ultimate prize
The US remains the top destination for bright and capable international students, serving 16% of global study abroad students. With nearly 4,000 degree-granting institutions, it has the largest potential capacity worldwide and could theoretically admit a much larger cohort of students.
The Open Doors Report affirms that the US is the only top-tier anglophone nation that still has room to grow international admission. According to the report, Canada, Australia, and the UK are nearly at capacity and are also considering (or already have in place) policies to restrict international student visas. The US has twice the higher education capacity of the other three countries combined.
We have two trends that complement one another. We have US campuses with open seats. We also have a growing demand for US bachelor’s degrees from international families. So why are undergraduate international students in the US down again?
Money and politics
It comes down to money and politics. In the past four years, the US dollar has increased against most world currencies, making US undergraduate education even more expensive, and this has priced out many international families. And yet, there are those who still come, and they contribute mightily to the US economy. In the 2023/24 academic year, international students contributed $43.8 billion to the US economy, according to NAFSA.
State Department visa policies also serve to block international students. Some countries are over-represented and so their new visa applications may be denied. Family finances can also play a role, and some visa applications are denied due to insufficient liquidity. Geopolitics is also a factor in filtering international student influx despite the high demand for US degrees.
Some US university campuses are facing a crisis of dwindling enrolment numbers and shutting down as a result (72 since 2020). International students could provide much-needed revenue and a supply of excellent, motivated learners. But there is a lot of work to be done with college admissions teams and university scholarships for international students.
In addition, international students need more support during the long preparation process that precedes their arrival on a US campus. Other barriers, including visas, must also be reformed, and US trade policy should be amended to recognise international students as an export to be managed upward.
We must proactively connect worthy and ambitious international students with the capacity already present in the US higher education system. If we tackle these challenges together, I believe we could allow thousands more international undergrads to pass over the threshold and, at the same time, help US campuses fill empty seats.
The demand is there, and it’s at a global scale.
