Building on a 36% year-on-year drop seen over the summer months, the number of F-1 visas issued this September was down 18% from the same time the previous year, analysis of new US State Department data by The Chronicle has shown.
The figures paint a worrying picture for the US higher education landscape, with Acumen North America president Roger Brindley calling the downward trend “alarming”, and one that is causing significant concern among institutions that rely on international students for financial planning and value the diversity of perspectives they bring to campus life.
Brindley emphasised the important contributions of international graduate students to the US research landscape, and said their place at US colleges is particularly important given 38 states are facing a domestic high school demographic decline.
Elsewhere stakeholders highlighted the disproportionate impact the declines were having on lower-ranked institutions and said the challenges faced by the US sector now stretch far beyond visa denials as students turn away from the US.
“For a significant portion of the sector, the consequences will be severe – and they won’t come just from visa denials,” said Ken LaOrden CEO of Quallege recruitment agency.
He warned that visa uncertainty, combined with the political climate and shifting perceptions of the US globally, were causing “a demand problem that runs deeper than processing rates”.
“Students are deciding to look elsewhere earlier. That’s the real long-term risk – not just rejections, but students who never apply in the first place.”
While September is traditionally a low month for visa issuance, after last year’s visa suspension, many US institutions relaxed enrolment rules to allow for late arrivals – though the new data shows September issuance levels did not make up for prior drops.
That’s the real long-term risk – not just rejections, but students who never apply in the first place
Ken LaOrden, Quallege
But the decline is not being felt equally across the sector – while LaOrden acknowledged the trend was “real” and to be taken seriously, sector-wide averages obscure what’s happening at the top of the market, he said.
“Students pursuing selective, brand-name US degrees tend to have stronger financial documentation, higher academic credentials and greater consular credibility,” said LaOrden, highlighting that risk profiles across colleges and applicants vary greatly.
He warned regional colleges were being hardest hit by falling numbers whereas institutional prestige remained a buffer from the worst of the denials, particularly those with strong STEM programs and established alumni networks in source markets.
As well as the uneven impact across US campuses, declining visa issuance is being felt differently across source countries and study level, with India – the US’s largest source country – seeing a 61% year-on-year drop in F-1 visas issued from May – August 2025.
Nigeria – one of the country’s targeted by Trump’s travel ban – and Nepal have also seen dramatic falls upwards of 50%, while countries such as South Korea and Vietnam have seen lesser declines of 20-25%.
According to Brindley, the inconsistent and varied approval and denial rates seen in the data ring true with the situation on the ground. He said some Indian sources had reported an F-1 approval rating of less than 60%, compared to Southeast Asia which is showing more resilience.
“In addition, perception is nine-tenths of reality,” said Brindely, emphasising the damaging impact of last year’s visa freeze, uncertainty around Optional Practical Training (OPT) and fears of visa revocations giving rise to a perception of the US as an unwelcoming destination.
What’s more, LaOrden emphasised the importance of institutions having clear post-graduation employment outcomes, though this terrain has become increasingly fragile due to continued threats to OPT.
“But even at the top of the market, we’re seeing demand soften for institutions that haven’t modernised how they recruit. Brand strength alone used to be enough – it no longer is,” he said, encouraging institutions to build strategies to reach students in-market through agents and local relationships.
Brindley agreed that institutions must “‘lean in’ to international education to remain relevant and engaged globally”, while acknowledging that some colleges were now focussing on domestic populations and their role in local and state economies.
On the international front, he emphasised the importance of diversifying modes of curriculum delivery to reduce or altogether remove the time students spend in the US, asking how faculties might adapt the traditional academic calendar to reduce the overall time to graduation.
“For a generation, UK universities have launched successful transnational education (TNE) models… Some resilient US universities that have never engaged in academic articulation at scale with overseas institutions are now asking themselves what it means to graduate with their degree without ever coming to the United States,” he said.
