A region-specific tightening is emerging, with nearly half of offshore higher education applicants from South Asian markets being refused study visas to Australia, and refusal rates ranging from around 35% to 70% in the first three months of 2026.
Nepal has seen a 69% refusal rate over this period – a sharp turnaround from approval rates above 90% last year – while India (42%), Bangladesh (45%) and Sri Lanka (41%) have also recorded high refusals, with Pakistan the only market below 40% at 37%. All five rank among Australia’s top 10 source markets.
In contrast, China continues to see refusal rates in the low single digits, while key Southeast Asian markets such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia – also among Australia’s top 10 source countries – range from around 4% to 15%, pointing to a more stable picture, with overall offshore higher education grant rates holding at around 70%.
This comes even as application volumes remain substantial in key South Asian markets, with India recording over 7,000 primary lodgements in the January-March period, followed by Nepal at just above 5,000 and Bangladesh at nearly 3,800.
While high refusal rates for students from South Asian countries are not surprising – following their reclassification to higher risk levels under the SSVF – some in the sector are puzzled by the “lack of clarity” around visa assessments, with concerns that genuine applicants are being caught up in the tightening.
“No doubt there has been some increased interest from non-genuine applicants, driven predominantly by the government’s ill-advised decision to lower financial and English evidentiary requirements for many South Asian markets in September 2025 – before then (correctly) reverting to previous settings just months later,” a senior Australian university official told The PIE News, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“As such, an increase in visa refusals is a rational response, but there is a sense the government may have over-corrected, with some genuine students caught in the crosshairs.”
Month-on-month visa grant rates show that refusals remain elevated after February’s two-decade high of 32.5%, rising to over 40% in March, with Nepal among the hardest hit at 73% that month.
While Nepal had over 70,500 students in Australia last year, lodgements spiked – with January up over 200% year-on-year – before easing in recent months, even as refusals continued to rise, signalling greater caution among students and agents.
“Student footfall and counselling activity have declined, with students, parents and agents becoming more cautious as visa outcomes appear less predictable. We are also seeing more applicants withdraw due to long wait times and falling confidence,” said Mukesh Dhamala, regional director, South Asia, National Academy of Professional Studies (NAPS).
“Following a rapid increase in application volumes, authorities are applying closer scrutiny, focusing on the quality and genuineness of applications. Common concerns include uniform-style financial documents, similar GS statements, generic SOPs, weak return-on-investment explanations, and superficial comparisons, often appearing templated rather than student-led.”
Visa officers are now placing far greater weight on perceived credibility rather than simply whether applicants meet stated requirements, with closer scrutiny of the full cost of study, the source and sustainability of funds, and likely post-study outcomes
Neil Fitzroy, OIEG
International student financials have become a key driver of visa refusals, particularly for South Asian applicants. The Genuine Student (GS) test is placing greater scrutiny not just on access to funds but on the credibility, source and consistency of financial claims.
According to Dhamala, this has prompted tighter financial screening – limiting education loans to selected banks, scrutinising financial documents more closely, and preferring fewer, close-family sponsors to present a more credible profile.
The trend is also visible in India, where Sonya Singh, CEO and founder of SIEC Education, said success rates are now around 55-60%, with states such as Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat and Kerala considered high risk, and the focus shifting from the ability to pay for a course in Australia to the ability to repay a student loan after graduation.
“That totally changes the assessment of GTE/GS requirements from sufficient funding to future outcomes and the repayment capacity of the family. This makes decision-making subjective and predictive — with visa officers effectively judging a student’s prospects years in advance, like gazing into a crystal ball,” said Singh.
“Now, counselling starts with financial advice before moving on to what and where to study. Preparation begins almost a year in advance, with students and their families within our advising systems for nearly a year.”
Just last month, assistant minister for international education Julian Hill wrote for The PIE about the need for integrity-related crackdowns and further tightening to create a more sustainable sector and continue attracting the best and brightest students to Australia.
However, Neil Fitzroy, managing director, Australasia at Oxford International Education Group (OIEG), said the decision-making process has shifted “from largely objective thresholds to a more discretionary and, at times, opaque assessment”, warning this is deterring even high-quality students from choosing Australia.
“Visa officers are now placing far greater weight on perceived credibility rather than simply whether applicants meet stated requirements, with closer scrutiny of the full cost of study, the source and sustainability of funds, and likely post-study outcomes,” said Fitzroy.
“Students who would likely have been approved six to 12 months ago are now being refused on less transparent grounds. That uncertainty is feeding back into behaviour, with students and agents delaying applications and deposits. High non-refundable visa fees and the absence of an appeal mechanism are increasing perceived risk and deterring even strong student profiles.”
Despite making up only 10% of the “evidence level” calculation, rising visa refusals could still impact universities’ immigration ratings, as ongoing uncertainty forces institutions to scale down future international student projections and focus on understanding government expectations.
“At an operational level, universities continue to actively vet prospective students in line with Genuine Student requirements, while also adjusting their settings based on what they believe the government is looking for,” said the university official.
“This, however, is challenging given the lack of clarity around how visas are being assessed and who will ultimately be granted a visa.”
The current situation also presents an opportunity to strengthen structured, quality-focused recruitment, with greater emphasis on student preparedness and course fit in markets like India, according to Ritu Sharma, director, partner success, UKI & ANZ and head of operations, South Asia, Acumen.
“Institutions are investing more in pre-application due diligence, including more rigorous financial screening and ensuring students can clearly articulate their study goals before offers and enrolments are confirmed,” said Sharma.
“Universities are also reviewing agent relationships more carefully, with visa outcomes now weighted more heavily alongside application volumes, reflecting a broader shift towards transparency and accountability in recruitment practices.”
