- Visa-processing times for some institutions are back to normal now that MD 111 has come into force, and approvals more in line with the past, say sector leaders – unlike last year when decisions were more arbitrary.
- Government data shows mixed picture, with VET providers lagging behind higher education in reaching their National Planning Levels (NPL).
- Concerns raised over potential onshore agent commission ban, as experts point out there are legitimate reasons why international students may wish to switch providers after arriving in Australia.
At The PIE Live Asia Pacific, sector experts took to the stage to examine the ministerial directions shaping Australia’s student flows. With the Department of Home Affairs continuing to tightly manage entry, debate centred on whether these measures are delivering the intended results.
In December 2024, Australia’s student visa processing directive, Ministerial Direction 107 (MD 107), was replaced by Ministerial Direction 111 (MD 111), tied to the individual provider caps previously assigned to institutions.
MD 111 means that departmental officials now prioritise student visas for each provider until they reach 80% of their cap figure, also known as their net overseas student commencement number (NOSC), which was handed down under the government’s thwarted capping legislation.
“At the time I thought MD 111 was very smart in politics, following the knockdown of the caps legislation, as it dealt with that particular issue, but also from a regional university’s perspective helped to rebalance things by giving the government a mechanism to replace 107,” said Mike Ferguson, pro vice-chancellor, international, Charles Sturt University, speaking at the Gold Coast conference.
“For us, it’s certainly a massive improvement from last year. Processing times seem more like what we saw in the past, and while there are still the contentious decisions coming through, it’s similar to what we would have seen in the past. It’s unlike last year, when it was [a case of] flip a coin and try and work out what the outcome would be. This is a lot more predictable. From that perspective, I think it’s working very well.”
Ferguson’s university is one that was “disadvantaged” by NOSC limits handed down by government, given a third of its pre-Covid allocation for 2025, the equivalent of just 7.5% of its total intake, which Ferguson explained is the lowest of all universities.
“So there’s anomalies like that that need to be adjusted, but as a way forward compared to last year, it’s a positive,” he said.
However, Ravi Lochan Singh, managing director of Global Reach believes a failure of MD 111 in that it should be permitting more students to TAFE, since this sector was exempt from the directive. According to Lochan Singh, the demand for TAFE from India has “almost gone away”.
Earlier in the conference, delegates heard from Felix Pirie, CEO of the Independent Tertiary Education Council Australia (ITECA), who spoke about the challenging landscape facing VET providers.
Data presented to providers from the Department of Education as part of a recent webinar showed international student numbers are tracking close to the National Planning Level (NPL) of 270,000 overall. But there are differences between sectors.
As of August 1 2025, NOSCs that have commenced study are at 77% of the overall NPL. Higher education is at 83%, while VET is at 60%.
The department also outlined that the pipeline of indicative NOSCs (which includes students yet to commence their studies) is at 96% of the overall NPL. Higher education is at 105%, while VET is at 79%.
“Given VET has continuous enrolment periods, government expects both to track close to the NPL,” attendees were told.
And as of August 1 2025, some 259 providers have reached their MD 111 prioritisation threshold (80% of their allocation). This includes:
- 26 of 38 public universities
- five of 16 TAFEs
- 75 of 140 other higher education/dual sector providers
- 153 of 977 VET providers (including 128/762 providers with allocations of 100 NOSCs or less)
While some stakeholders say visa refusals are now easier to manage, for others they remain a pressing concern. At the PIE Live Asia Pacific 2024 conference, Melanie Macfarlane, CEO and principal migration consultant at MM Migration and Recruitment, spoke of the “no rhyme or reason” refusals she was witnessing. A year later, the problem persists.
“I’ve never seen as many student visa refusals attached to my licence as I have in this last one to two years,” said Macfarlane at this year’s event.
I’ve never seen as many student visa refusals attached to my licence as I have in this last one to two years
Melanie Macfarlane, MM Migration and Recruitment
“I just see constantly this distinct lack of respect for the VET sector and lack of understanding that someone can come from having studied an undergraduate degree and then they go to do a vocational qualification because they want to be able to work in that area after.”
More changes are on the cards for the sector as incoming ESOS legislation is widely expected to pass through the Senate. The legislation won’t include the hard caps that made headlines in 2024, but could include measures such as a ban on onshore agent commissions to curb course-hopping.
But not everyone is keen for more changes following a period of policy upheaval.
“There’s been plenty already actioned. I think it might be better to simply start talking more to the sector and to have more collaboration. If you want to do something about education agents, well, let’s look at self-regulation, accreditation of education agents. There’s moves afoot to already do that,” said Macfarlane.
And while Ferguson believes the government is “well intentioned”, he echoed Macfarlane’s thoughts and encouraged the government to engage more with the sector to understand the practical implications of some of these mechanisms.
“Most of it’s on the right track, but I have concerns about the agent commission. I think there’s some unintended consequences there. It could be a student who’s come to us in regional Australia and it’s not for them. They want help to find another university,” said Ferguson.
“As a regional university, we get great outcomes from onshore agents who turn students’ minds to coming to study in regional Australia after they’ve completed their initial qualification. Without onshore agents that would be very difficult for us. I think banning commission is risky.”
Badri Aryal, global director at Expert Education & Visa Services, echoed these concerns, saying it is important to “protect” the good agents whose onshore work helps guide students effectively.
Other stakeholders at the conference argued that an outright ban would just lead to high quality education providers adhering to these rules while others may be tempted to offer rewards “in kind” instead of a commission payment for the transferring student.
