Uncertainty across the ‘big four’ study destinations have hit IDP’s student enrolment pipeline for the 2025 financial year, new documents reveal.
It comes as the US continues to be buffeted by an unpredictable Trump administration, the UK looks set to introduce stricter immigration policies and Canada and Australia appear to be keeping restrictive international education policies in place following their respective elections.
In a market update released today, the Australia-based education giant predicted that market headwinds would cause its student placement volumes to drop by an estimated 28-30% during this financial year. It cited aggregated visa data across its four biggest markets that show international student numbers are down 28% year on year.
Amid the continuing “policy uncertainty”, IDP is “completing a detailed review of longer-term cost, productivity, investment and commercial levers”, it said, promising an update in its next financial results announcement in August.
Meanwhile, IDP expects its language testing volumes to drop between 18% and 20% year on year, although the company said continued strong average fee growth is likely to partially offset the impact on its revenue.
“This continued uncertainty has impacted IDP student enrolment pipeline size and conversion rates in the important May and June pipeline build given the timing of the fall intake in the UK, Canada and the US, as well as the second semester intake in Australia,” it said.
IDP’s current estimate is that financial year 2025 EBIT will be “in the range of” $115 million-$125 million”.
However, it said it was “confident in the long-term drivers for the industry” and was “well-placed to grow market share and position strongly for when market conditions improve”.
Policy uncertainty and negative rhetoric continues, while economic uncertainty has increased
IDP Education
It said it expects to increase its market share in key markets for student placements, as well as continuing to cut costs to adapt to its short-term financial outlook.
IDP said it will also complete a review of longer-tern commercial priorities – an update for which will be given in August – as well as investing in new AI projects to underpin long-term growth.
In the meantime, IDP said, “policy uncertainty and negative rhetoric continues, while economic uncertainty has increased”. But despite the challenges, it believes the company and the international education sector at large will be able to weather the changes.
“With a clear strategy, an experienced global team, and a strong balance sheet, IDP remains well-placed to lead the sector through this period and emerge stronger when conditions improve,” it said.
