Global education and training expenditure is set to reach $10 trillion by 2030, but international educators should “expect disruption” to flows and trends.
That was the message sent to educators from HolonIQ, the global market intelligence platform for education, as the experts shared predictions for the future of the sector.
Population growth from developing markets, mostly in Asia and Africa, and an “enormous aging population” is set to fuel the staggering expenditure growth, which will reach over $8 trillion by 2025.
At the QS Reimagine Education Conference in Abu Dhabi, Patrick Brothers, HolonIQ’s co-founder and co-CEO, presented key figures, giving a view of the future landscape of the global sector.
Globally, there are more than 500 million 10-14 year old children. Nigeria alone has 25 million children of this age, the data showed.
“These are our young, future, to-be, university graduates,” said Brothers.
Africa is one of the only regions where this 10-14 year old population is expected to grow over the next decade.
Meanwhile, between 2000 and 2050, the 10-14 age group is set to shrink in markets such as China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Sri Lanka, Mexico and Russia, leading to a “very, very different world in the next 10, 20, 30 years”, said Brothers.
HolonIQ, which helps better predict and plan for the future of education, foresees India becoming the number one source market around the world, overtaking China.
Brothers predicted this lead from India could transform the way postgraduate programs are considered, as this is what Indian students are seeking out from markets across the world.
“Place-based pandemics and geopolitical issues are changing flows”
Looking back on historical figures, Brothers highlighted how international education has grown significantly.
In 1970, just under 1 million students decided each year to pursue their studies somewhere in the world outside of their own country. Today, that is the case for more than 6 million students who decide to travel to pursue studies abroad, according to HolonIQ.
By 2030, HolonIQ predicts 8.95 million enrolments from higher education students outside of their country of citizenship, with the growth rate slowing down only slightly to reach this number.
“The US is the top study destination but when you peel back the numbers, the UK is very strong as well as Australia and Canada. But now new markets as well. China is a very popular destination to study,” said Brothers.
As pull factors such as post-graduation prospects and affordability, and push factors such as the economy of a market, continue to influence mobility, Brothers highlighted the disruption factors that could drive instability.
“Place-based pandemics and geopolitical issues are changing flows. [There are] capacity constraints in markets that have for a long time enjoyed many, many international students as well, so expect disruption up to 2030 and beyond.”
