The latest Emerging Futures survey, based on more than 5,800 prospective and current international students across 118 countries and regions, found that 78% of students are now comparing multiple destinations before deciding where to study, up from 66% in October 2024.
Visa considerations are increasingly shaping those decisions much earlier in the process.
Among students who abandoned international study plans altogether, 26% cited difficulty obtaining a visa, up from 20% in the previous survey, while 27% said visa costs were a major barrier.
Simon Emmett, chief partner officer, IDP, said visa uncertainty had traditionally been something students confronted late in the counselling process, but that had changed.
“Visa uncertainty used to be an aspect of the process prospective students grappled with in the final stages of a counselling process, now we’re hearing from students that it’s one of the first things they check,” he told The PIE.
“If a student can’t get a clear picture of what it’s going to cost them to apply, many will simply move on to a country where they can,” Emmett added.
He said this did not necessarily mean students had become more risk-averse, but rather more informed about the risks associated with applying abroad.
Students surveyed are screening countries the way a consumer screens a product. Today, unclear or unstable visa settings are failing that test early
Simon Emmett, IDP
“Students surveyed are screening countries the way a consumer screens a product. Today, unclear or unstable visa settings are failing that test early.”
While traditional destinations – Australia, United Kingdom, Canada and the United States – remain highly trusted for career outcomes, students are spending longer weighing their options and are quicker to deprioritise countries earlier in the search.
According to Emmett, IDP is seeing some decline in early-stage consideration for the United Kingdom, the United States and New Zealand.
At the same time, he said Australia was strengthening, while Canada appeared to be stabilising after a period of volatility.
The research also found that nearly half of students are actively considering alternative destinations, with countries such as Germany, France and China becoming increasingly competitive.
“The traditional destinations aren’t going anywhere, that much is clear. Students still overwhelmingly trust them to deliver on career outcomes, trust that’s been hard won,” Emmett said.
“But we are seeing students considering more options over a longer period, and becoming quicker to deprioritise a country.”
He said countries that treated international education as a long-term strategic priority would be best placed to benefit as competition intensifies.
The report also suggests transparency is becoming a competitive advantage in its own right.
“Governments and institutions that are doing the work to communicate processing timelines clearly, including stable financial guidelines, are the ones students feel confident choosing. Transparency is quickly becoming a unique selling point and a competitive advantage in market,” explained Emmett.
“This is a complex decision, and students are relying more than ever on in-person support to navigate it,” he said.
“When you take the time to really understand a student’s goals, what they want from their degree, where they want to end up, you can match them to the right course and institution.”
The research also points to continued interest in transnational education (TNE) as students look for lower-risk pathways into international qualifications and employment opportunities. However, quality perceptions remain a significant barrier.
More than half of respondents – 54% – said they still questioned whether transnational education offered the same quality as studying at a main campus.
