While issuances for the Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS), a unique reference number issued to international students after accepting an offer, are up 8% year-on-year, acceptances and deposits have risen by over 18%. The gap between applications and final approvals indicates that UK universities are processing more students while applying greater scrutiny to decisions.
The recovery, the first coordinated rebound in two years, marks a “turning point”, according to Katie Layt, director of growth and partnerships at Enroly.
“Universities are moving from reactive to predictive admissions, using real-time data to make faster, fairer, and more confident decisions,” said Layt.
“The sector has shown real adaptability under increasing compliance and capacity pressures.”
With concerns that “rapid expansion” is occurring, mainly among mid-ranking UK universities, alongside issues of visa fraud and no-show students, the UK government has moved to tighten compliance checks over the past year.
Universities are applying lessons from this cycle straight into the next
Katie Layt, Enroly
While UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) has been using ‘action plans’ to address minor compliance breaches, the Home Office is set to announce a phased rollout of the red-amber-green basic compliance assessment (BCA) system to rate universities on compliance and potentially impose recruitment caps on underperforming institutions.
Moreover, the Enroly data indicates that UK universities processed students earlier this year, with nearly half of all CAS letters issued before August.
According to Dave Amor, director at Higher Insights Ltd., who analysed some of the data in a LinkedIn post, although the findings showed a roughly even split between universities seeing year-on-year growth and decline in CAS issuances, many appeared to issue them earlier than last year, suggesting fewer last-minute confirmations.
“This could indicate (a) less desperation and (b) that they’re being a bit more cautious about late arrivals because of the impact late commencement can have on continuation and completion. I think that second item probably is an influence,” Amor told The PIE News.
The shift toward earlier processing also comes amid capacity pressures, as seen recently when University College London (UCL) exceeded its initial CAS allocation and was granted additional capacity by UKVI.
Universities have already begun issuing CAS for the January 2026 intake, signalling that the more proactive planning seen in the September 2025 cycle is being replicated, according to Enroly.
“Universities are applying lessons from this cycle straight into the next. The institutions investing in data visibility and joined-up systems are already seeing results,” stated Layt.
East Asia and South East Asia declines are predominantly continuation of long-term trends
Dave Amor, Higher Insights Ltd
As per data highlighted by Enroly, West Africa recorded the highest year-on-year rise in CAS issuances (70.03%), followed by North America (11.82%), East Africa (7.74%), and South Asia (2.54%).
In contrast, regions such as the Middle East (-30.45%), Southeast Asia (-11.2%), and East Asia (-7.61%) continue to record significant year-on-year declines in CAS issuances.
While the UK has enjoyed a generally positive student recruitment environment — particularly among the “big four” destinations — amid tighter international student policies in competitor countries and a weaker pound against key currencies, Amor noted that the continued decline from East Asia can be attributed to a mix of local and external factors.
“East Asia and South East Asia declines are predominantly continuation of long-term trends as a combination of weak demographics and strengthening local education systems make declines to the UK natural (due to demographics) and understandable (as cost of UK and benefit vs. local options is reduced),” he said.
Price sensitivity and regional options are increasingly shaping the study abroad landscape in East and Southeast Asia, where stagnant wage growth and high inflation have made a UK education less affordable for many middle-income households, while the region’s growing ambitions to become an education powerhouse are offering students strong alternatives.
While China has seen year-on-year improvement from acceptance to CAS, and its undergraduate market for the UK shows strong signs of growth, Amor noted that the postgraduate segment remains in decline, with cost and return on investment being key factors “pushing Chinese students to look elsewhere”.
Overall this year, all study segments have recorded significant growth, with postgraduate research up 132.53%, postgraduate taught rising 18.90%, and undergraduate enrolments increasing by 5.56%.
While roughly seven in ten enrolments came through an agent, with 81% of students using them in India compared to 34% in China, the top 10 agents, despite growing their overall market share, recorded the weakest conversion rates from acceptance to CAS issuance.
“It was interesting to hear that the top 10 agents performed more poorly on acceptance to CAS — worse than the average and worse than direct,” said Amor.
“It’s hard to say why without knowing who the agents are, but given the total number of visible agents, there’s clearly a lot of aggregator use at play.”
Though the timeline remains uncertain, agents used by UK universities were expected to be formally named on CAS documents by summer 2025, a move aimed at increasing transparency and accountability amid growing compliance concerns around agent practices.
The demographic profile is shifting too, with female students now making up about 44% of issued CAS, a five-point increase from last year, alongside a notable rise in mid-career learners aged 26–30.
“This reflects a more diverse and globally mobile applicant base, with motivations now centred on reputation, experience, and value rather than cost alone,” Enroly noted.
