Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issuance to international students across Enroly’s UK university partner network has fallen 27% year-on-year for the September 2026 intake, with sharp variations between recruitment markets and subject areas. It coincides with a sharp rise in visa refusals among key sending countries.
The number of CAS issued is down 26.9% compared with the same point last year, while international student acceptances have fallen 22.1%, according to new data from student compliance platform Enroly.
Enroly’s data shows a market increasingly divided by nationality, region and subject, with some recruitment markets recording substantial growth while others have seen steep declines.
The company forecasts that CAS issuance for the full September intake will be approximately 28% lower year-on-year.
Among the UK’s largest recruitment markets, Pakistan recorded the steepest decline, with CAS issuance down 57.9%, followed by Nigeria (-37.8%), Ghana (-36.4%) and Sri Lanka (-36.3%).
CAS issuance to Bangladeshi students fell 30.2%, while Indian student numbers were down 24.9%.
Enroly attributed the falls in Pakistan and Bangladesh to tighter Home Office compliance rules and said several universities had paused recruitment from the markets.
Last year, The PIE News exclusively revealed that London Metropolitan University has decided to withdraw from Bangladesh due to a high number of visa refusals.
Nigeria has seen more offers but fewer conversions, with Enroly pointing to naira devaluation and tighter financial checks as contributing factors.
However, not all markets contracted. Nepalese CAS issuance rose 24.4%, with Enroly suggesting the country may be benefiting from students displaced by Australia’s tightening of its visa regime.
Chinese student numbers also increased, by 6.6%, while CAS issuance to US students rose 18%, although Enroly said there was no clear driver for the increase.
At a regional level, Europe recorded 36.2% growth in CAS issuance, followed by Oceania at 101.8%, North America at 21.1% and Latin America and the Caribbean at 9.8%.
East Asia also grew, up 5.5%. In contrast, West Africa recorded a 37.3% fall, while South Asia declined 27% and Southeast Asia fell 20.3%.
The Middle East was down 15.8% and East Africa declined 5.2%.
Alongside the fall in recruitment, Enroly reported that visa refusals across all nationalities are currently 30% higher year-on-year.
The platform recorded a refusal rate of 3.17% when calculated against students who had reached the visa-outcome stage, compared with 1.37% when measured against CAS issued.
Enroly said the visa-outcome measure provides a more accurate indication of actual refusal risk because not every student issued with a CAS has yet received a visa decision.
Refusal rates were particularly high among Ghanaian students, at 30.95% when calculated against visa outcomes. The corresponding rates were 11.9% for Nigerian students, 10.15% for Pakistani students, 9.1% for Bangladeshi students and 1.86% for Indian students.
However, Enroly stressed that the refusal figures are a live snapshot rather than a final measure. September is typically the peak month for visa outcomes, with around 44% of outcomes for a typical intake recorded during this period, meaning rates are expected to change over the coming weeks.
The company also cautioned against comparing its figures directly with the Home Office’s official 12-month rolling refusal rate, most recently reported at 4.9%.
The data also points to a significant shift in the subject profile of international recruitment.
Business and management – historically the largest subject area by CAS volume – recorded the steepest decline, with issuance down 45.7% year-on-year.
The subject’s share of total CAS issuance has consequently fallen from 40.9% to 33.3%.
Computing and engineering also recorded substantial declines, down 29.6% and 29.4% respectively.
Nursing and midwifery was relatively resilient, falling 3.2%, while creative arts and design declined 10.1%.
Education and teaching was the only subject area in the data to record year-on-year growth, with CAS issuance up 5.7%.
Enroly’s figures cover only its UK university partner network and are based partly on student self-declared visa outcomes through its CAS Shield compliance platform.
The company said its data should therefore be viewed as a live, partial complement to official statistics rather than a substitute for Home Office or HESA data.
