The government figures show a 64% year-on-year reduction in new study permits issued in 2025, as Canada welcomed fewer first-time international students than during the pandemic and the lowest total over the past decade.
According to IRCC data obtained by BorderPass, Canada approved approximately 73,800 new students in 2025 – just 25% of its stated target of 305,900 – wreaking havoc on institutions whose recruitment strategies were based on these aims.
“[Those] that plan around the headline figures will consistently be caught short,” BorderPass vice president of sales and partnerships Jonathan Sherman told The PIE News.
“The ones that win in 2026 will be those building recruitment strategies around the realistic new-student pipeline, not the blended number,” he said.
Significantly, study permit extensions accounted for 73% of post-secondary approvals last year, according to ApplyBoard, with experts suggesting this could have put pressure on new student applications.
“As the number of extensions grows, the proportion of the cap left for new applicants shrinks,” ApplyBoard CEO Meti Basiri told The PIE News, with the proportion of onshore students extending their time in Canada growing significantly in recent years.
Additionally, Basiri said it was likely that visa refusal reasons from the previous year continued to shape decision-making, with over three quarters of refusals in 2024 due to visa officers not being convinced that applicants would leave Canada after their studies, and over half citing a lack of financial assets.
Elsewhere, the figures exposed vast global disparities across sending countries, as India’s approval rating for new arrivals fell from 69% in 2024 to 25-27% last year (with slight data variances depending on when it was pulled by IRCC).
But India’s decline was not felt uniformly across institutions, with Indian university applicants approved at 33% compared to college applicants approved at 14% – a gap reflecting a “consistent IRCC preference for program level that shows up across every major source country”, said Sherman.
“Colleges that invest in application quality and student profile-building before submission, rather than relying on volume, are better positioned to close that gap,” he advised.
And while Indian students make up the largest international student cohort in Canada, 2025 saw more new study permits granted for Chinese students, driven by a much higher approval rating of 75%.
Alongside India, Nigeria and Iran stood out for their similarly low approval rates of 20% and 25% respectively, while other top markets including France, the US and South Korea saw applicants approved at 94-96%.
On top of national variations, Sherman said provincial variance in approval rates was “one of the most under-communicated data points in the sector” and a “straightforward recruitment lever that most institutions are leaving unused”.
For example, approval rates for Nigerian applicants were just 15% in Ontario last year, versus 37% in Alberta – data points that could give institutions a “meaningful edge” when talking to agents and prospective students, said Sherman.
Provincial variance in approval rates is one of the most under-communicated data points in the sector
Jonathan Sherman, BorderPass
Amid the dramatic declines, institutions are set to face heightened government scrutiny going forward and will be required to demonstrate “end-to-end accountability, from applicant screening through to enrolment reporting and graduate outcomes”, Sherman explained.
This comes after Canada’s Auditor General recently found that 50 DLIs failed to file enrolment reports in 2025 with no consequences, with the government since signalling that it will start suspending non-compliant institutions for up to one year.
Sherman said the stricter regulations would “reward preparation, not reaction” and that “schools with robust processes already in place will find the new environment more navigable than those scrambling to build them under pressure”.
Meanwhile, as policy volatility and declining numbers have damaged institutions’ financial planning and dominated Canadian headlines, they have significantly dampened Canada’s attractiveness as a study destination, with student demand dropping by 55% last year.
At the same time, students’ perception of whether a country is welcoming to international students is becoming increasingly important, according to a recent ApplyBoard survey, which saw the number of student advisors citing it as a priority for students doubling on the previous year.
To this end, Basiri said it was “vital” that organisations across Canada worked together to restore the country’s reputation “as a destination that welcomes the innovative and entrepreneurial energy that international students bring to Canadian campuses”.
He said he was “deeply concerned” by the drop in new student arrivals which “risks undermining the long-term health of Canada’s talent pipeline” – vital for addressing labour shortages caused by Canada’s ageing workforce.
But he highlighted the recent positive development from IRCC simplifying co-op work permit rules and advised institutions to invest in better pre-screening tools, promote programs aligned with in-demand fields and prioritise stronger visa applications.
