Canada’s population saw almost no increase in the first quarter of this year, with declining international students driving the largest reduction in temporary residents since the pandemic, according to the latest data from the government’s statistics agency.
“The first quarter of 2025 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of slower population growth following announcements by the federal government in 2024 that it would lower the levels of both temporary and permanent immigration,” Statistics Canada said in a statement last week.
The change – amounting to 0.0% growth and 20,107 more people in real terms – was the second-slowest quarterly growth rate in Canada since records began, with the decline in temporary residents countering typical seasonal increases from January to April.
The number of study permit holders in Q1 2025 was 11% lower than the same period last year, with Ontario and British Columbia – the provinces with the most international students – hardest hit.
Work permit holder levels also fell during this quarter, though the rate of decline was much slower than study permit holders and levels remain nearly three times higher than in Q1 2022.
On the other hand, the number of asylum claimants and protected persons in Canada grew for the 13th consecutive quarter, reaching a record total high of 470,000 on April 1, 2025.
Though lower than recent years, international migration accounted for all of Canada’s population growth in 2025, offsetting the country’s ageing population, with more recorded deaths than births every quarter since 2022.
Quarterly population growth rate 2014-2024:
According to the latest government estimates, temporary residents accounted for 7.1% of the population on April 1, down from a peak of 7.4% in October 2024.
Elected at the end of April this year, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced he would return Canada’s immigration rates to “sustainable levels”, pledging to reduce temporary resident volumes to 5% of the overall population by the end of 2027.
And yet, Canada’s current Immigration Levels Plan appears not to have been updated, with the IRCC website still showing the previous government’s more ambitious plan of reaching the 5% goal by the end of 2026.
The latest reduction in study permit holders follows a turbulent eighteen months for Canada’s international higher education sector, rocked by repeated study permit caps and work permit restrictions, with visa processing delays currently causing concern among stakeholders.
The first quarter of 2025 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of slower population growth
Statistics Canada
The caps, among other restrictions, were intended to reduce study permit approvals by 35%, though early forecasts suggested approvals would fall far short of this, with stakeholders accusing the government of “significantly underestimating” their impact.
More recently, colleagues were offered a glimpse of hope from immigration minister Diab, who said that the government was to hold consultations with provinces and universities about the caps, and that she recognised the system must be “sustainable”.
With sector leaders repeatedly advocating for meaningful government engagement since the initial cap announcement in January 2024, it remains to be seen what this round of consultations will entail.
Meanwhile, the economic impact of declining international enrolments is taking hold across Canada, with the estimated financial loss totalling $2.7bn this year.
Last month, it was reported that over 5,000 jobs had been slashed at Canadian institutions, with large Ontario colleges such as Centennial losing more than 750 positions.
