With the Home Office banning study visas for Afghanistan, Sudan, Myanmar and Cameroon, including for Chevening scholars, from March 26, experts warn the move may be just the beginning of tightening immigration policies.
“This looks like a somewhat arbitrary intervention, including in relation to Chevening scholars who are not going to be included for exemption. There were clear indications at the press conference that this might just be the start, and that other countries could be involved,” said Sally Mapstone, principal and vice-chancellor of the University of St Andrews, addressing the audience at The PIE Live Europe 2026.
“The fact that there was little to no warning, and that it appears to be an arbitrary decision, is really worrying.”
Earlier this month, home secretary Shabana Mahmood announced the new policy, with the decision purportedly stemming from an increase in asylum claims from individuals who first entered the UK legally on visas.
According to UK government data, around 133,670 people have claimed asylum after arriving via legal routes since 2021, with applications from students from Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar and Sudan rising by over 470% between 2021 and 2025 – prompting the policy to address what the government claims is “widespread abuse of the visa system”.
While Mapstone acknowledged that some institutions may warrant scrutiny due to “very high” numbers of asylum-seeking students, she noted it is not “uncommon” for international students to claim asylum due to a range of factors.
“I know from my own experience that it is not uncommon for students from these countries, while at an institution, to experience a change in their identity or circumstances that makes it entirely legitimate for them to seek asylum,” stated Mapstone.
And although it creates opportunities for organisations like Council for At-Risk Academics (CARA) and Mosaik Education to support students, this cannot be considered a permanent solution.
“There is now a real supplementary effort to look at ways in which a number of institutions can work in-country to offer online or in-country provision to assist potential scholars. But that is a supplement rather than a substitute,” she added.
We will find that universities because of the way the Home Office has implemented BCA, are treating different countries in different ways and that is perturbing
Nick Hillman, HEPI
Just this week, students from Sudan and Afghanistan launched legal action to overturn the ban, which they described as “unlawful, irrational, a violation of human rights laws and a misdirection of law”. Lawyers say dozens more from the four banned countries have come forward to join the legal challenge.
While Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI), UK, is seeing legal moves against the policy gaining momentum, he also warned of its wider impact on universities already navigating tighter rules under the Home Office’s Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA).
“One consequence of the new BCA, which introduces much tougher rules, is that universities will be going through the list country by country, asking which countries their students are coming from and whether they are lower down the numbers than others,” stated Hillman.
“We will find that universities because of the way the Home Office has implemented BCA, are treating different countries in different ways and that is perturbing.”
The Home Office recently circulated draft guidance on the red-amber-green (RAG) system for BCAs, where a sponsor’s lowest-rated metric determines their overall rating, and failure to meet any core requirement results in a red rating and CAS reduction.
“There are real concerns around the RAG system — you can have an amber rating while still being compliant, and a red rating could result in losing a licence for a significant period, with serious knock-on effects for that institution,” stated Mapstone.
“With BCAs being introduced in June 2026, there’s concern they could be applied retroactively to institutions that were compliant under previous regulations.”
As the UK sector navigates policy changes, including the graduate route being cut from two years to 18 months from January 2027, Lord Ed Vaizey, chair of the UK-ASEAN Business Council, said government trade envoys can help universities protect broader interests and maintain the UK’s standing with international students.
“You’re not paid as a trade envoy, the costs are minimal since you usually stay with the ambassador. It helps the UK open doors, and ambassadors generally welcome it because it enables them to set up meetings with key ministers and advance the UK’s agenda,” stated Vaizey.
“It’s a very good scheme, particularly for this sector. I would encourage any universities or colleges with interests abroad, or looking to expand internationally, to contact their trade envoy directly, they’re very accessible and keen to hear from you.”
While the UK’s international education strategy aims to grow education exports to £40 billion by 2030, Vaizey also sees potential in the government’s “soft power council”, though its impact will require careful navigation amid current sentiment on immigration.
“Every international student who studies in the UK or at a British campus abroad generally develops an affection for Britain, which pays dividends over time,” stated Vaizey.
“Immigration is a vexed issue, and trying to reconcile the financial and soft power benefits of international students with public concerns about reasonable levels of immigration is tricky. The key is not to lose sight of the massive opportunity our universities have to welcome international students.”
Calling Brexit a “monumentally stupid decision”, Vaizey said he fully backs Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s efforts to rebalance Britain’s relationship with Europe, with the UK rejoining Erasmus in 2027 and leveraging opportunities as new education hubs emerge.
“I do go to Saudi Arabia a lot, Southeast Asia, and China, and it’s clear that those countries regard higher education as an essential element of their economic development. Britain still has a front-row seat in working with those countries,” stated Vaizey.
“Universities need a clear roadmap and strong government support to expand abroad. We cannot rest on our laurels, other countries recognise these opportunities, and competition is growing from the US and Australia in Southeast Asia.”
While the international education strategy aims to grow transnational education, experts warned that rapid growth carries risks with deep partnerships, exit plans, and careful management being essential.
“TNE offers huge opportunities for students, universities, and countries, but it also carries risks. Growth has been rapid over the past few years, and demand shows no signs of slowing,” stated Josh Fleming, director of research and strategy, Office for Students (OfS), UK.
“TNE is not a quick win, it requires deep partnerships, clear exit strategies for students, and careful governance, especially when institutions must engage with partners across borders.”
Highlighting that TNE is a wonderful yet “fairly hard thing to do”, Hillman noted that the current strategy still needs more attention to fully reflect the diversity of student choices.
“What worries me is that the strategy seems to assume one group of students: if they don’t come here, they’ll automatically get a British degree in their home country. In reality, they might go to Sydney, Toronto, New York, or Queensland instead,” he added.
