Visa refusal rates for the UK have remained high for the last three quarters with no indication of dropping. Behind the surge in refusals is a clear pattern of seven countries generating more than 70% of visa refusals, namely: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Ghana and Sri Lanka.
These seven countries represent the volume application markets where visa refusal rates are above the government’s own 5% threshold classified as high risk. There are other markets with visa refusal rates above 50% such as Kenya and Iran, but with much lower application levels.
Refusal rates for different nationalities have spiked at different points over the last three quarters, however the 12-month rolling average has shown a consistent rise. There has been no rebalancing of rates over time despite the fact universities have increased their compliance activity.
In comparison with lower refusal rates for other countries, there seems to be an explicit message from the government to universities attracting international students: recruit from these markets at your own risk.
Some universities have taken heed, stopping recruitment entirely from entire countries including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ghana and Sri Lanka in recent months.
The inclusion of India, the UK’s largest student source market, in the list of high risk countries will be of concern to the sector. The country’s average visa refusal rate has now crept to 8% across the last three quarters, above the target 5% threshold outlined in the new BCA metrics.
The idea of stopping recruitment from India is unfathomable, but recruitment clearly comes with some significant risk now, linked to certain regions within the country. As a shared, sector-wide volume market, this introduces jeopardy even for Russell Group institutions as explained in our mission group analysis.
It is also notable that In Q2 2026, visa refusals for Nigerian and Ghanan nationals rose sharply, reaching their highest levels in the past 12- months. University sources told The PIE, the sharp increase can be linked to a backlog of applications that were awaiting a decision for more than three months being refused at the same time, although we are unable to verify this claim.
The visa refusal rates for the seven countries between Q3 2025 (autumn intake) and Q2 2026 are shown below:
The rolling 12-month refusal rate shown below, highlights how refusals have remained high rather than rebalancing:
Who is most reliant on the seven riskiest markets?
Using the latest HESA data from 2024-25, The PIE has been able to map the universities recruiting the most international students at that time and what percentage of their recruitment is made up from the seven markets with the highest number of refusals from each of the last four quarters (since Q3 2023).
The list below highlights the clear division between high-ranking universities attracting large volumes of international students from low risk markets, and lesser-ranked universities recruiting large volumes of students almost exclusively from the seven high risk markets we have identified.
| University | International intake 2024-25 (HESA) | Percentage dependence on the seven countries with the highest visa refusals (Q4 2025 – Q2 2026) |
| University College London* | 15100 | 5% |
| University of Hertfordshire | 11415 | 92% |
| University of Manchester* | 9970 | 10% |
| Coventry University | 9935 | 84% |
| King’s College London* | 8775 | 10% |
| University of Glasgow | 8735 | 9% |
| University of East London | 8620 | 94% |
| University of Edinburgh* | 8275 | 8% |
| University of Birmingham* | 7830 | 14% |
| Ulster University | 7295 | 84% |
| Imperial College London* | 6550 | 9% |
| University of Leeds* | 6475 | 13% |
| University of Bristol* | 6250 | 10% |
| University of Sunderland | 5585 | 78% |
| University of Warwick* | 5570 | 23% |
| University of Southampton* | 5495 | 6% |
| LSE* | 5485 | 10% |
| University of Arts London | 5480 | 7% |
| University of West Scotland | 5175 | 95% |
| University of Greenwich | 4795 | 76% |
University of Hertfordshire, University of Coventry, University of East London, Ulster University and University of West Scotland all had a dependency of over 80% of enrolments coming from the seven high risk countries named in this article, in 2024-25.
If these universities have failed to diversify in the past two years, then the financial loss related to reduced CAS issuance and enrolments will be significant.
The University of Sunderland (78% reliance on risk markets in 2024-25) recently announced cuts of more than £40m to its annual budget in direct response to the fall in international student numbers.
In contrast to our list of the seven riskiest countries, there is an alternate list of ‘safe’ countries where visa refusal rates remain below 1%, namely; China, United States, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, Kuwait, South Korea, Canada, Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, Singapore, Germany, France, Spain and Italy.
In 2024/25, 67% of all enrolments from this ‘safe’ list of countries went to Russell Group universities, with the mission group enrolling 38% of all new international entrants in that year.
