Student perceptions fall faster than reality
While the ‘big four’ study destinations adjust to new policy realities and recover from varying degrees of turbulence in recent years, international students have been watching.
New data presented at PLNA by Kirsten Feddersen, IDP’s vice president of US partnerships, tracked changes in students’ perception of educational quality, value for money, employment opportunities and work and study visa policies across leading study destinations from August 2024 – 2025.
“Students tend to respond to headlines more than they respond to what’s actually going on,” said Feddersen: “We’re seeing the shifts in perception happen faster than the shifts in reality.”
IDP Emerging Futures student survey results, August 2024:
The phenomenon was clearest in students’ feelings about the US, which ranked number one for student perceptions across three of the five metrics in 2024, but only held onto its reputation as the top destination for high quality education 12 months later.
“A mere year ago the US was leading by quite a bit for quality of education, value for money and graduate employment opportunities,” said Feddersen, while in 2025 Australia had overtaken the US in most categories, with notable gains also made by the UK and New Zealand.
IDP Emerging Futures student survey results, August 2025:
While recognising that some of these shifts did reflect the current reality in the US, which is weathering very real threats to OPT and duration of status, among other challenges, Feddersen reiterated the importance of universities working with students and institutional partners “to take control of the narrative”.
“Because in this particular case, what we’re seeing is that rhetoric Trumps reality. No pun intended.”
Meanwhile, amid widespread political uncertainty, the data confirmed widely circulated anecdotal reports of international students increasingly safeguarding their study decisions by applying to several “backup” countries.
In February 2025, 38% of surveyed students only applied to one destination. Fast forward six months, this figure had fallen to just 20%, meaning 80% of students applied to multiple destinations in August 2025.
Students tend to respond to headlines more than they respond to what’s actually going on
Kirsten Feddersen, IDP
The ‘big four’ is fast becoming the ‘big 14’
Along with policy volatility, rising affordability challenges and visa restrictions are contributing to the fundamental reshaping of global student flows, with the ‘big 14’ widely tipped to replace the traditional ‘big four’ study destinations.
This was the theme to emerge from QS’s global data presented by senior consultant Gabriela Geron, revealing a predicted 4% growth rate in global international student numbers over the next five years, pushing totals to exceed 8.5 million global students by 2030.
Yet the combined market share of the US, UK, Australia and Canada – which currently stands at over 40% – is set to fall below 35% by the end of the decade as the diversification of study destinations drives students to a wider range of countries.
In Europe, Geron highlighted the fast-growing destinations of Germany, France and Spain, as well as Asian hubs including India, South Korea and Hong Kong, alongside the growth of Middle Eastern destinations such as the UAE.
“They’re all investing in research and English-medium programs,” said Geron, emphasising the opportunities emerging for destinations to position themselves as new education centres amid geopolitical challenges and economic vulnerability elsewhere.
Chinese students’ shifting priorities are reshaping global mobility flows
Chinese student flows are having a notable impact on the diversification of study destinations, delegates heard, with the number of Chinese students choosing the big four having fallen by 13% since the pandemic, said Nous Group principal Matt Durnin.
The rising perceived quality of China’s domestic higher education system “is lowering the perceived value of anything but a top brand foreign institution,” said Durnin.
He highlighted the notable rise of Chinese institutions on the global stage – with 34 institutions now in the QS top 500 global rankings, up from 10 in 2010 –representing “a change we’ve not experienced on that scale in any other place in the world”.
While Durnin said there were still several opportunities for international universities operating in China, “you’re going to have to be coming with a much stronger return on investment proposition or adopting a really different model of how you’re engaging with and educating students,” he warned.
And don’t forget the untapped opportunity of online degrees
In the Chinese market, Beacon Education co-founder Charles Iannuzzi said that China is now graduating 11 million undergraduates each year with only 1.5 million seats available for domestic postgraduate education.
“There’s actually been a drop off in applicants to about three to one, because students are starting to see they don’t have access, they might not get into the programs and there aren’t enough seats available,” he said.
This phenomenon, according to Iannuzzi, is happening in various other study locations including Vietnam, Indonesia and India where the focus is on improving undergraduate systems and graduate degree programs are not keeping up with volume.
“These gaps are really big opportunities for enrolments. These are students who are unserved by the traditional education system in their country that are looking for educational opportunities and don’t really know where to find them.
“Because these are local populations, they’re not students who have agents or consultants. They’re not students who have been searching for international opportunities… but when they’re presented with those opportunities, they’re really excited,” said Iannuzzi.
These are students who are unserved by the traditional education system in their country that are looking for educational opportunities and don’t really know where to find them
Charles Iannuzzi, Beacon Education
Accordingly, this is translating into demand for online international education degrees, which has only been bolstered by rising geopolitical uncertainty and student desire to “de-risk” their education options.
As such, the data showed a “staggering” growth in demand for online graduate degrees in every Chinese province since 2023, with the highest increases recorded in Beijing (+719%), Guangdong (658+) and Jiangsu (+490%).
“For students who speak English, they are starting to get more creative and more interested… at the end of the day, they’re looking for an upscale opportunity,” Iannuzzi told delegates, urging them to consider this untapped segment of students in future enrolment strategies.
