Amid further clarifications on the cap being made back in March, Marc Miller noted in a fresh statement on April 5 that the cap will represent a 28% reduction from 2023 for the groups included in it.

“Many variables may influence the number of new international students who arrive in Canada in 2024, for example, provinces and territories with room to grow may not end up using their full allocations; approval rates may change; and in-year adjustments may be required,” Miller detailed.

“These results will help me make decisions on allocations for 2025,” he added, which will occur as part of the overarching temporary plan to lower the number of international students in Canada.

The statement was released with the intention to share the figures and explain how decisions were made.

The final total of study permit allocations for all provinces and territories (PTs) is almost 552,000.

Miller provided explanatory context for figures shared. The cap, Miller said, is based on a zero-net growth strategy across all study permit cohorts.

“This means that the number of international students coming to Canada in 2024 should be the same as the number of students whose permits expire this year. For 2024, the target is 485,000 approved study permits,” he explained.

The study permit cap will be technically higher than 485,000 – the higher figure of 606,000 being quoted is for study permit applications with a baked-in assumption that 40% may not be approved, ie a 60% visa approval rate.

And this 606,000 total application cap figure has been further reduced to allow for in-country extensions from students already in the country and for exempt student profiles – but also then inflated to account for provinces whose visa acceptance rate is below 60%.

“IRCC also topped up allocations for provinces whose approval rate was lower than 60%,” said Miller. “The top­-ups will help provinces with lower approval rates reach their expected number of approved study permits in 2024.

“As a result, a total of about 552,000 study permit applications have been allocated to provinces and territories under the national cap. These allocations are expected to yield approximately 292,000 approved study permits, representing a 28% reduction from 2023 for the groups included under the cap.”

The data provided along with the minister’s statement also seemed to clarify multiple provinces and territories’ allocations that had yet not been published by the provinces themselves.

Allocations have been “topped up” for provinces with approval rates of less than 60%, he detailed, with the aim that they will then reach their expected numbers of approved study permits.

With the “top-ups”, Alberta’s allocation is 40,894; Manitoba’s is 18,652; New Brunswick’s is confirmed to be 14,651; Newfoundland and Labrador, which was “discussing with DLIs regarding the allocation” in the first week of April, has been given 3,153.

The Northwest Territories have been issued 333; Nunavut has also been issued the same; Quebec has been issued 117,917 – almost 50,000 more than without the top up. The Yukon has been issued 417.

“For provinces that would receive fewer international students in 2024 than in 2023, we adjusted their allocation to lessen the negative impact”

Ontario’s 235,000 PAL allocation has largely gone to public colleges and universities – a staggering 96% – leaving private language schools in particular with only 2%, while the chair of Career Colleges Ontario said it was “disappointed” by the lack of permit allocations for its institutions, which are private.

Meanwhile, Prince Edward Island’s allocation will go only to public institutions – British Columbia’s allocation is the only one known that sees a sizeable portion going to private institutions, which will receive 47% of the province’s PAL allocation.

Regina-Wascana MP Michael Kram called the cap “Toronto-centric”.

Miller noted that growth for provinces receiving more students than in 2023 “based on population share” would be limited to 10%.

“For provinces that would receive fewer international students in 2024 than in 2023, we adjusted their allocation to lessen the negative impact in the first year and support broader regional immigration goals,” he noted.

“A total of about 552,000 study permit applications have been allocated to provinces and territories under the national cap.

“These allocations are expected to yield approximately 292,000 approved study permits, representing a 28% reduction from 2023 for the groups included under the cap,” he concluded.