Spring is traditionally a time of change. This year, this is especially true when it comes to global politics.
First up, on April 28, Canadians will go to the polls in the 2025 federal election. Until February – and as even I wrote in the January 2025 issue of this very column – it looked likely that the Conservatives would storm to victory following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.
However, that was before new US President Donald Trump had unleashed his global trade wars. For the USA’s long-time ally and northern neighbour, these have given rise to steep and unexpected tariffs on imports, as well as derogatory political comments about Canada becoming the 51st state of America. It is no surprise, then, that for Canadian voters the stakes have changed significantly in just a few short months, and the Liberals under Mark Carney may well be on track for a majority government after all.
For those working in the international education arena, a potential election victory from the Liberals doesn’t necessarily offer much reprieve from tougher student immigration conditions. For it has been the Liberals who have been tightening controls over the past two years – including through study permit caps and alterations to post-study work eligibility.
With the Conservatives already calling for stricter limits on immigration, likely emboldened by developments in the USA, the direction of travel looks set for a Canadian clampdown on inward student migration in the near future whoever wins the election.
For those working in the international education arena, a potential election victory from the Liberals doesn’t necessarily offer much reprieve from tougher student immigration conditions
It is a similar political situation down under. On May 3, the 2025 Australian federal election will be held and, similar to Canada, it is set to be closely fought race between the current governing Labor party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, and the Liberal-National Coalition under opposition leader Peter Dutton. Immigration is also one of the hot topics of the Australian election and all parties are under pressure to prove they can bring down numbers to restore the “Australian dream”.
While the Albanese government has become increasingly more hostile towards international students in the run up to the election, it is Dutton’s Liberal-National Coalition that has just upped the ante with the release of its plan for international education. This includes proposals to bring down numbers of new overseas entrants by at least 30,000 a year, with the lion’s share of cuts set to be controlled by a cap on recruitment at the nation’s publicly funded universities.
It also includes plans to increase the student visa application fee (varied by provider-type), introduce a new charge for students changing providers part-way through their course, and review post study work arrangements. Irrespective of whether the Coalition wins or loses the election, it is likely they will maintain pressure to deliver on this vision over the coming parliamentary term, all the while lessening the appeal of the Australian study ambition.
It is Dutton’s Liberal-National Coalition that has just upped the ante with the release of its plan for international education
We must, however, not be too quick to rub our hands over these political developments here in the UK. Despite having our own general election firmly behind us and a noticeable change in messaging towards international education from British policymakers, we should not underestimate the potential of how our own local and mayoral elections, scheduled for May 1, could change the direction of the UK government’s attitudes to international education.
While local and mayoral elections cannot exactly alter the course of national policy, they are usually seen as a good gauge of the popularity of the serving government. This May, there is therefore a lot at stake should Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration Reform UK party make the biggest gains in the polls across England and cement its popularity with the voting public.
The impacts could also be immediate as Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government will seek to prove that it, too, can be tough on immigration. With the next iteration of the UK international education strategy still pending publication, its very shape and nature hangs in the balance and will likely depend on how confident the government feels post-May to back inward student migration, or otherwise.
As the world prepares to embark on a major political spring clean, those of us in the UK higher education sector will therefore be hoping that we don’t throw away our best opportunity yet to capitalise on the anti-immigration headwinds that are engulfing our closest competitors.
