China and India are expected to propel growth in postgraduate student mobility over the next decade in all leading study destinations, according to forecasts by the British Council. Its latest Education Intelligence report specifically on postgraduate forecasting has been presented at AIEC.
The projection also shows Asia’s dominance of enrolments seen over the past decade will lessen, however. This is because tertiary-aged populations will decline in the region at the same time as figures rise in other source countries, alongside rapid GDP growth.
Nigeria is predicted to be among other increasingly important source markets and Nigeria, India and Pakistan are expected to show double-digit growth to 2024 while China’s growth will be significantly slower.
Nevertheless, despite its aging population, China is expected to remain the largest source market for international postgraduate students, reaching 338,000 enrolments by 2024.
The US will maintain its dominance in the market and is predicted to be the fastest growing destination for internationally mobile postgraduates
India meanwhile is forecast to be the fastest growing source market over the next 10 years with total enrolments rising 7.5% from 88,000 in 2012 to 209,000 by 2024.
The US will maintain its dominance in the market and is predicted to be the fastest growing destination for internationally mobile postgraduates with a 4% growth rate, with India accounting for 54% of that growth.
The UK will hold on to its second place spot but is predicted to see a slowdown of growth to 3.5% compared to the 4.1% average increase seen between 2007-2012.
Forecasters say China will make up 44% of the UK’s growth but suggest such a cool down could be because of significant falls in enrolments from key growing markets India and Pakistan.
Germany, meanwhile, is pegged to be the third largest PG destination with a projected growth rate of 3.6%, 27% of which will be fuelled by Indian enrolments.
Indian students will also account for 39% of Australia’s projected 4.1% growth, placing it fourth in terms of overall destinations by 2024.
Zainab Malik, Director of Research at Education Intelligence, told delegates at AIEC that India will see 20 million more tertiary students within a decade.
And like the UK, Japan is expected to see growth stagnate to just 1.6% relying on China to account for 56% of the increase. Canada, meanwhile, is projected to grow by 4.1% (29% of growth will be pinned on Indian enrolments).
India will see 20 million more tertiary students within a decade
The forecast is based on demographics and economics in six destination countries and 23 source markets.
Malik cautioned educators of becoming too reliant on either China or India and highlighted many other markets of interest.
Beyond China and India, Nigeria is predicted to show the strongest growth over the next 10 years at 8.3%. Other countries pegged to to see significant increases in outbound students include Indonesia (7.2%) Pakistan (6.4%) and Saudi Arabia (5.2%).
“There are a number of drivers outside of demographics and economics that do change in international education,” she told The PIE News. “If you’re so dependent on one market that we are forecasting to be strong – based on their demographics and economics – you’re completely ignoring those other factors that come into play.”
“We don’t know what’s going to happen with politics and policy in the future; we don’t know what the workforce demands are going to be, so by not diversifying your recruitment strategies you’re basically opening yourself up to risk,” she added.